Marchamalo vs Villarrubia
Match result probability Model pick: Marchamalo win
Marchamalo winPick
41.2%
Draw
28.0%
Villarrubia win
30.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.2%
No50.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.548.4%
Under 2.551.6%
How much we know
Marchamalo history50 matches
Villarrubia history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Marchamalo
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Marchamalo are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Villarrubia are rated 25 Elo points higher
Elo 1,515 against 1,490. On rating alone Villarrubia would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.32 goals a game over 50 matches for Marchamalo, against 1.23 over 48 for Villarrubia.
-
Defences are close
Marchamalo concede 1.18 a game, Villarrubia 1.13.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
46% of Marchamalo matches, against 46% for Villarrubia. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Villarrubia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1489.9
ELO
1515.0
50
ELO · Matches
48
1489.9
Current Team ELO
1515.0
1515.0
Current Opponent ELO
1489.9
-25.04
Current ELO Difference
25.04
0.46
Expected score
0.54
50
History Matches
48
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.80
Overperformance
51.09
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals 90
50
Matches
48
1.28
PPG
1.44
36.0%
Win rate
39.6%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
44.0%
Loss rate
35.4%
66.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
46.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals 100
23
Matches
24
1.48
PPG
0.88
43.5%
Win rate
16.7%
17.4%
Draw rate
37.5%
39.1%
Loss rate
45.8%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
8.3%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.32
Goals for per game
1.23
68.0%
Scoring rate
72.9%
44.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.30
Goals for per game
0.88
73.9%
Scoring rate
58.3%
47.8%
BTTS rate
45.8%
50
History Matches
48
1.32
Goals Mean
1.23
1.39
Goals Std
0.94
68.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
16.0%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
1.13
70.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.21
73.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
50
History Matches
48
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.13
0.99
Conceded Std
0.90
36.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
12.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
50
History Matches
48
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.39
4.34
Stability score
1.60
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
49
Eligible Matches
48
15
Lead Matches
14
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.64
10
Trailing Matches
9
20.0%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
87.92
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
24
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.25
Portability PPG Range
0.25
80.00
Portability Score
80.10
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
50
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-25.04
PPG-0.16
GF0.09
GA0.06
PPG0.60
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate7.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Conceded 2+ rate0.6%
Conceded 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.40
Stability score2.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate22.9%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.24
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score-0.10
Rest days-101.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-25.04
Current Opponent ELO25.04
Current ELO Difference-50.08
Expected score-0.07
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Marchamalo
D
Marchamalo3–3Quintanar del Rey31 Oct · home
Pick: Marchamalo 36% · missed L
San Clemente3–1Marchamalo25 Oct · away
Pick: Marchamalo 42% · missed W
Marchamalo1–0Socuéllamos17 Oct · home
Pick: Marchamalo 38% · hit W
Marchamalo2–0Unión Adarve30 Aug · home
Pick: Marchamalo 43% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Villarrubia
W
Villarrubia1–0Socuéllamos1 Nov · home
Pick: Socuéllamos 38% · missed D
Tarancón1–1Villarrubia24 Oct · away
Pick: Tarancón 50% · missed W
Villarrubia4–0Guadalajara II18 Oct · home
Pick: Villarrubia 54% · hit D
Villarrubia1–1Torrijos4 Oct · home
Pick: Villarrubia 69% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Marchamalo and Villarrubia meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Marchamalo win 41.2%, draw 28.0%, Villarrubia win 30.8%. The pick is Marchamalo win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.4%. Both teams to score: 49.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.