ScoreProb
Australian Championship Australia Round 4 2026

Marconi Stallions vs Bayswater City

Marconi Stallions Home · Elo 1,623
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bayswater City Away · Elo 1,650
Marconi Stadium, Sydney Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Marconi Stallions win
Marconi Stallions winPick
50.9%
Draw
22.9%
Bayswater City win
26.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%

How much we know

Marconi Stallions history70 matches
Bayswater City history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 19 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 04:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Marconi Stallions are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bayswater City are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,650 against 1,623. On rating alone Bayswater City would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Bayswater City score more

    1.57 goals a game over 70 matches for Marconi Stallions, against 2.31 over 54 for Bayswater City.

  • Marconi Stallions concede fewer

    Marconi Stallions concede 0.90 a game, Bayswater City 1.07.

  • Bayswater City games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Marconi Stallions matches, against 59% for Bayswater City. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Marconi Stallions
Bayswater City@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1622.9
ELO
1649.8
70
ELO · Matches
54
1622.9
Current Team ELO
1649.8
1649.8
Current Opponent ELO
1622.9
-26.91
Current ELO Difference
26.91
0.46
Expected score
0.54
70
History Matches
54
0.08
Residual Mean
0.14
56.29
Overperformance
60.34
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.60
0.80
Goals for per game
3.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.10
1.20
Goals for per game
3.20
0.70
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.20
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.09
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.69
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
54
1.97
PPG
2.19
60.0%
Win rate
66.7%
17.1%
Draw rate
18.5%
22.9%
Loss rate
14.8%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
41.4%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
18.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
25
2.15
PPG
1.84
64.7%
Win rate
52.0%
20.6%
Draw rate
28.0%
14.7%
Loss rate
20.0%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
34
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.57
Goals for per game
2.31
80.0%
Scoring rate
90.7%
40.0%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.92
82.4%
Scoring rate
84.0%
38.2%
BTTS rate
56.0%
70
History Matches
54
1.57
Goals Mean
2.31
1.26
Goals Std
1.62
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
90.7%
45.7%
Scored 2+ rate
64.8%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
38.9%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.90
Goals against per game
1.07
58.6%
Conceding rate
57.4%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.12
52.9%
Conceding rate
68.0%
70
History Matches
54
0.90
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.06
Conceded Std
1.23
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.6%
5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.0%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
54
0.86
Result entropy
0.79
1.83
Goal Difference Std
2.05
13.88
Stability score
21.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
54
34
Lead Matches
27
85.3%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.93
17
Trailing Matches
12
35.3%
Non-loss rate
58.3%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
41.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.24
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.96
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
42
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.25
27
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.55
Portability PPG Range
0.75
68.20
Portability Score
61.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-26.91
PPG-0.21
GF-0.74
GA-0.17
PPG0.31
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate10.7%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate15.1%
Failed-to-score rate1.6%
History Matches16
Goals Mean-0.74
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.22
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.68
History Matches16
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-7.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.22
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.24
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score6.43
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO-26.91
Current Opponent ELO26.91
Current ELO Difference-53.83
Expected score-0.08
History Matches16
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Marconi Stallions

L
Sydney Olympic3–2Marconi Stallions30 Oct · away
Pick: Marconi Stallions 54% · missed
L
Bayswater City3–1Marconi Stallions17 Oct · away
Pick: Bayswater City 37% · hit
D
Marconi Stallions1–1NWS Spirit30 Aug · home
Pick: Marconi Stallions 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bayswater City

W
Sydney Olympic1–2Bayswater City25 Oct · away
Pick: Bayswater City 41% · hit
W
Bayswater City3–1Marconi Stallions17 Oct · home
Pick: Bayswater City 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Marconi Stallions and Bayswater City meet in Australian Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 04:00 UTC. The match is played at Marconi Stadium, Sydney. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Marconi Stallions win 50.9%, draw 22.9%, Bayswater City win 26.1%. The pick is Marconi Stallions win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.8%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.