ScoreProb
Australian Championship Australia Round 4 2026

Wollongong Wolves vs Preston Lions

Wollongong Wolves Home · Elo 1,497
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Preston Lions Away · Elo 1,657
WIN Stadium, Wollongong Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Preston Lions win
Wollongong Wolves win
35.2%
Draw
23.1%
Preston Lions winPick
41.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.7%
Under 2.545.3%

How much we know

Wollongong Wolves history65 matches
Preston Lions history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why Preston Lions are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Preston Lions are rated 160 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,657 against 1,497. On rating alone Preston Lions would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Preston Lions score more

    1.38 goals a game over 65 matches for Wollongong Wolves, against 1.64 over 61 for Preston Lions.

  • Preston Lions concede fewer

    Wollongong Wolves concede 1.35 a game, Preston Lions 0.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Wollongong Wolves matches, against 52% for Preston Lions. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wollongong Wolves
Preston Lions@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1497.1
ELO
1656.7
65
ELO · Matches
61
1497.1
Current Team ELO
1656.7
1656.7
Current Opponent ELO
1497.1
-159.6
Current ELO Difference
159.6
0.29
Expected score
0.71
65
History Matches
61
0.00
Residual Mean
0.12
49.72
Overperformance
59.21
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
2.10
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
61
1.35
PPG
1.85
36.9%
Win rate
54.1%
24.6%
Draw rate
23.0%
38.5%
Loss rate
23.0%
78.5%
Over 1.5 rate
70.5%
55.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.5%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
32
1.50
PPG
1.72
43.8%
Win rate
50.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
21.9%
37.5%
Loss rate
28.1%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
32
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.38
Goals for per game
1.64
69.2%
Scoring rate
80.3%
49.2%
BTTS rate
45.9%
1.66
Goals for per game
1.63
75.0%
Scoring rate
81.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
61
1.38
Goals Mean
1.64
1.22
Goals Std
1.24
69.2%
Scored 1+ rate
80.3%
44.6%
Scored 2+ rate
49.2%
18.5%
Scored 3+ rate
24.6%
1.66
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.35
Goals against per game
0.98
73.8%
Conceding rate
57.4%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.16
71.9%
Conceding rate
59.4%
65
History Matches
61
1.35
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.17
Conceded Std
1.08
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.2%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.1%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
61
0.98
Result entropy
0.92
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.71
1.65
Stability score
8.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
61
20
Lead Matches
24
65.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.88
20
Trailing Matches
10
25.0%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
32
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.66
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.35
0.36
Portability PPG Range
0.83
75.43
Portability Score
58.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-159.6
PPG-0.50
GF-0.25
GA0.37
PPG-0.22
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.38
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches4
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-6.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.48
Portability Score16.49
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO-159.6
Current Opponent ELO159.6
Current ELO Difference-319.1
Expected score-0.43
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.49

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wollongong Wolves

L
Wollongong Wolves1–3Lions31 Oct · home
Pick: Wollongong Wolves 41% · missed
W
Wollongong Wolves2–0South Hobart25 Oct · home
Pick: Wollongong Wolves 43% · hit
L
Wollongong Wolves0–4Manly United30 Aug · home
Pick: Wollongong Wolves 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Preston Lions

W
South Hobart1–2Preston Lions31 Oct · away
Pick: Preston Lions 48% · hit
L
Lions2–1Preston Lions22 Oct · away
Pick: Preston Lions 40% · missed
D
Preston Lions1–1Altona Magic29 Aug · home
Pick: Preston Lions 74% · missed
L
Preston Lions1–2South Melbourne26 Aug · home
Pick: Preston Lions 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Wollongong Wolves and Preston Lions meet in Australian Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:00 UTC. The match is played at WIN Stadium, Wollongong. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Wollongong Wolves win 35.2%, draw 23.1%, Preston Lions win 41.7%. The pick is Preston Lions win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.7%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.