ScoreProb
Oberliga - Nordost-Nord Germany NOFV-Nord - 11 2026

Mecklenburg Schwerin vs Siedenbollentin

Mecklenburg Schwerin Home · Elo 1,495
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Siedenbollentin Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Siedenbollentin win
Mecklenburg Schwerin win
36.3%
Draw
27.0%
Siedenbollentin winPick
36.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.7%
Under 2.540.3%

How much we know

Mecklenburg Schwerin history4 matches
Siedenbollentin history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Siedenbollentin are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,495 against 1,504. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Siedenbollentin score far more

    0.75 goals a game over 4 matches for Mecklenburg Schwerin, against 1.83 over 35 for Siedenbollentin.

  • Mecklenburg Schwerin concede fewer

    Mecklenburg Schwerin concede 1.75 a game, Siedenbollentin 2.20.

  • Siedenbollentin games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Mecklenburg Schwerin matches, against 74% for Siedenbollentin. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mecklenburg Schwerin
Siedenbollentin
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.1
ELO
1504.0
4
ELO · Matches
35
1495.1
Current Team ELO
1504.0
1504.0
Current Opponent ELO
1495.1
-8.88
Current ELO Difference
8.88
0.49
Expected score
0.51
4
History Matches
35
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.00
48.94
Overperformance
50.20
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
4
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.75
Goals for per game
1.60
1.75
Goals against per game
3.00
25.0%
Win rate
40.0%
4
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
0.75
Goals for per game
2.20
1.75
Goals against per game
2.30
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.85
0.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
4
Matches
35
1.00
PPG
1.43
25.0%
Win rate
40.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
22.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
37.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
97.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
74.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
18
1.50
PPG
1.11
50.0%
Win rate
27.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
27.8%
50.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
61.1%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
2
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.75
Goals for per game
1.83
50.0%
Scoring rate
82.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
74.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.56
50.0%
Scoring rate
72.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
4
History Matches
35
0.75
Goals Mean
1.83
0.83
Goals Std
1.36
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.9%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
54.3%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.7%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.75
Goals against per game
2.20
100.0%
Conceding rate
88.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.17
100.0%
Conceding rate
88.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
4
History Matches
35
1.75
Conceded Mean
2.20
1.30
Conceded Std
1.55
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.9%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
42.9%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
4
History Matches
35
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.87
Goal Difference Std
2.21
5.36
Stability score
2.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
4
Eligible Matches
33
1
Lead Matches
13
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.77
1
Trailing Matches
9
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
1.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.17
Rest days
84.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
18
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
2
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
2
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.78
—
Portability PPG Range
1.57
—
Portability Score
38.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
4
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-8.88
PPG-0.43
GF-1.08
GA-0.45
PPG0.50
PPG0.39
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate32.9%
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate22.2%
History Matches-31
Goals Mean-1.08
Goals Std-0.53
Scored 1+ rate-0.33
Scored 2+ rate-0.29
Scored 3+ rate-0.26
Venue Goals Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.83
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean-0.45
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.38
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.55
History Matches-31
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score2.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.83
Eligible Matches-29
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate30.8%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches-29
First Half Goals For Mean-0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-1.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match0.75
Current Team ELO-8.88
Current Opponent ELO8.88
Current ELO Difference-17.77
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-31
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-1.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mecklenburg Schwerin

D
Union Klosterfelde1–1Mecklenburg Schwerin1 Nov · away
Pick: Union Klosterfelde 58% · missed
D
Mecklenburg Schwerin1–1Lichtenberg24 Oct · home
Pick: Mecklenburg Schwerin 40% · missed
L
Neustrelitz2–0Mecklenburg Schwerin18 Oct · away
Pick: Neustrelitz 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Siedenbollentin

D
Lichtenberg1–1Siedenbollentin31 Oct · away
Pick: Lichtenberg 50% · missed
L
Siedenbollentin0–1Hansa Rostock II23 Oct · home
Pick: Siedenbollentin 47% · missed
D
Anker Wismar0–0Siedenbollentin17 Oct · away
Pick: Anker Wismar 54% · missed
W
Siedenbollentin3–0Union Klosterfelde29 Aug · home
Pick: Siedenbollentin 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mecklenburg Schwerin and Siedenbollentin meet in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mecklenburg Schwerin win 36.3%, draw 27.0%, Siedenbollentin win 36.7%. The pick is Siedenbollentin win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.7%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.