ScoreProb
Oberliga - Nordost-Nord Germany NOFV-Nord - 11 2026

Optik Rathenow vs Lichtenberg

Optik Rathenow Home · Elo 1,414
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lichtenberg Away · Elo 1,555
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lichtenberg win
Optik Rathenow win
30.9%
Draw
21.3%
Lichtenberg winPick
47.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.5%
No40.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.5%
Under 2.534.5%

How much we know

Optik Rathenow history54 matches
Lichtenberg history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lichtenberg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lichtenberg are rated 141 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,414. On rating alone Lichtenberg would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Lichtenberg score far more

    1.22 goals a game over 54 matches for Optik Rathenow, against 2.50 over 52 for Lichtenberg.

  • Lichtenberg concede fewer

    Optik Rathenow concede 1.94 a game, Lichtenberg 1.65.

  • Lichtenberg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Optik Rathenow matches, against 77% for Lichtenberg. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Optik Rathenow
Lichtenberg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1413.7
ELO
1555.1
54
ELO · Matches
52
1413.7
Current Team ELO
1555.1
1555.1
Current Opponent ELO
1413.7
-141.4
Current ELO Difference
141.4
0.31
Expected score
0.69
54
History Matches
52
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
44.58
Overperformance
53.88
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.80
0.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
3.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.10
0.60
Goals for per game
1.50
2.60
Goals against per game
2.60
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
3.29
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.42
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
52
0.93
PPG
1.79
20.4%
Win rate
53.8%
31.5%
Draw rate
17.3%
48.1%
Loss rate
28.8%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
76.9%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
57.7%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
25
1.04
PPG
1.64
21.4%
Win rate
52.0%
39.3%
Draw rate
8.0%
39.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
92.0%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
92.0%
39.3%
Over 3.5 rate
72.0%
2.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
28
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
2.50
68.5%
Scoring rate
86.5%
63.0%
BTTS rate
71.2%
1.43
Goals for per game
2.76
71.4%
Scoring rate
96.0%
67.9%
BTTS rate
84.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
52
1.22
Goals Mean
2.50
1.38
Goals Std
1.84
68.5%
Scored 1+ rate
86.5%
29.6%
Scored 2+ rate
63.5%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
46.2%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
2.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.94
Goals against per game
1.65
87.0%
Conceding rate
78.8%
1.82
Goals against per game
1.96
85.7%
Conceding rate
88.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
52
1.94
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.86
Conceded Std
1.59
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.2%
27.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.2%
1.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.5%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
4.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.5%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
4.0%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
52
0.95
Result entropy
0.91
2.42
Goal Difference Std
2.56
5.35
Stability score
9.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
50
6
Lead Matches
21
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.61
Lead Points Retention
0.89
19
Trailing Matches
10
36.8%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
1.16
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.40
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.08
Rest days
83.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
27
Normal Rest History Matches
26
0.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.96
23
Long Rest History Matches
25
0.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.73
1.07
Portability PPG Range
1.63
53.25
Portability Score
40.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-141.4
PPG-0.86
GF-1.28
GA0.29
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate18.0%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Failed-to-score rate24.6%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-1.28
Goals Std-0.46
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.34
Scored 3+ rate-0.35
Venue Goals Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.54
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate5.8%
Conceded 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.88
History Matches2
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score-4.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.09
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate-0.36
Lead Points Retention-0.28
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate26.8%
Trailing Win Rate5.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-0.56
Portability Score12.66
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.77
Current Team ELO-141.4
Current Opponent ELO141.4
Current ELO Difference-282.7
Expected score-0.39
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Optik Rathenow

W
Hansa Rostock II0–1Optik Rathenow31 Oct · away
Pick: Hansa Rostock II 49% · missed
W
Optik Rathenow5–0Anker Wismar24 Oct · home
Pick: Anker Wismar 44% · missed
L
Tennis Borussia1–0Optik Rathenow18 Oct · away
Pick: Tennis Borussia 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lichtenberg

D
Lichtenberg1–1Siedenbollentin31 Oct · home
Pick: Lichtenberg 50% · missed
D
Mecklenburg Schwerin1–1Lichtenberg24 Oct · away
Pick: Mecklenburg Schwerin 40% · missed
D
Hansa Rostock II2–2Lichtenberg18 Oct · away
Pick: Hansa Rostock II 42% · missed
W
Lichtenberg2–0Hertha Zehlendorf30 Aug · home
Pick: Lichtenberg 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Optik Rathenow and Lichtenberg meet in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Optik Rathenow win 30.9%, draw 21.3%, Lichtenberg win 47.8%. The pick is Lichtenberg win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.5%. Both teams to score: 59.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.