ScoreProb
Premier League Ghana Round 10 2026

Medeama vs Swedru All Blacks

Medeama Home · Elo 1,569
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Swedru All Blacks Away · Elo 1,501
TNA Park, Tarkwa Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Medeama win
Medeama winPick
57.2%
Draw
26.3%
Swedru All Blacks win
16.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.0%
Under 2.551.0%

How much we know

Medeama history58 matches
Swedru All Blacks history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Medeama are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Medeama are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,501. On rating alone Medeama would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Medeama score more

    1.53 goals a game over 58 matches for Medeama, against 1.00 over 35 for Swedru All Blacks.

  • Defences are close

    Medeama concede 1.00 a game, Swedru All Blacks 0.94.

  • Medeama games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Medeama matches, against 29% for Swedru All Blacks. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 12 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Medeama
Swedru All Blacks@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1568.9
ELO
1500.9
58
ELO · Matches
35
1568.9
Current Team ELO
1500.9
1500.9
Current Opponent ELO
1568.9
68.01
Current ELO Difference
-68.01
0.60
Expected score
0.40
58
History Matches
35
0.06
Residual Mean
0.00
54.32
Overperformance
49.92
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
35
1.67
PPG
1.29
48.3%
Win rate
34.3%
22.4%
Draw rate
25.7%
29.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
53.4%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
8.6%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
18
2.45
PPG
0.78
75.9%
Win rate
22.2%
17.2%
Draw rate
11.1%
6.9%
Loss rate
66.7%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
55.2%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
29
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.53
Goals for per game
1.00
82.8%
Scoring rate
57.1%
55.2%
BTTS rate
37.1%
2.07
Goals for per game
0.78
96.6%
Scoring rate
44.4%
51.7%
BTTS rate
38.9%
58
History Matches
35
1.53
Goals Mean
1.00
1.13
Goals Std
1.15
82.8%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
46.6%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
15.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.6%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
0.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
0.94
62.1%
Conceding rate
68.6%
0.62
Goals against per game
1.28
51.7%
Conceding rate
88.9%
58
History Matches
35
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.94
1.03
Conceded Std
0.75
25.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.7%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.62
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
3.4%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
3.4%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
35
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.31
4.75
Stability score
1.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
35
17
Lead Matches
10
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.73
14
Trailing Matches
9
28.6%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
88.00
Rest days
168.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
32
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
22
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.28
Portability PPG Std
—
0.67
Portability PPG Range
—
64.05
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO68.01
PPG0.39
GF0.53
GA0.06
PPG1.67
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate37.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.52
History Matches23
Goals Mean0.53
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate25.6%
Scored 2+ rate18.0%
Scored 3+ rate6.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches23
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Conceded 2+ rate0.1%
Conceded 3+ rate8.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.65
History Matches23
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score3.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.65
Eligible Matches21
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate12.4%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate6.3%
Trailing Win Rate3.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches21
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days-80.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.61
Long Rest History Matches15
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Current Team ELO68.01
Current Opponent ELO-68.01
Current ELO Difference136.0
Expected score0.19
History Matches23
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Medeama

W
Debibi United0–1Medeama4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Swedru All Blacks

L
Aduana Stars2–1Swedru All Blacks4 Oct · away
Pick: Aduana Stars 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Medeama and Swedru All Blacks meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at TNA Park, Tarkwa. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Medeama win 57.2%, draw 26.3%, Swedru All Blacks win 16.5%. The pick is Medeama win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.0%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.