ScoreProb
First Amateur Division Belgium VV - 11 2026

Merelbeke vs Heist

Merelbeke Home · Elo 1,467
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Heist Away · Elo 1,566
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Heist win
Merelbeke win
37.1%
Draw
22.1%
Heist winPick
40.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.0%
No42.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.6%
Under 2.536.4%

How much we know

Merelbeke history47 matches
Heist history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

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Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Heist are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Heist are rated 99 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,566 against 1,467. On rating alone Heist would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Heist score far more

    1.40 goals a game over 47 matches for Merelbeke, against 2.27 over 49 for Heist.

  • Heist concede fewer

    Merelbeke concede 1.53 a game, Heist 1.35.

  • Heist games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Merelbeke matches, against 76% for Heist. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Merelbeke
Heist
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.0
ELO
1566.2
47
ELO · Matches
49
1467.0
Current Team ELO
1566.2
1566.2
Current Opponent ELO
1467.0
-99.19
Current ELO Difference
99.19
0.36
Expected score
0.64
47
History Matches
49
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.08
48.24
Overperformance
55.70
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
3.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
2.10
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.00
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
49
1.34
PPG
1.73
40.4%
Win rate
51.0%
12.8%
Draw rate
20.4%
46.8%
Loss rate
28.6%
83.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.7%
57.4%
Over 2.5 rate
75.5%
29.8%
Over 3.5 rate
51.0%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
21
1.50
PPG
1.62
42.3%
Win rate
47.6%
23.1%
Draw rate
19.0%
34.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
76.2%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
52.4%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.52
26
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.40
Goals for per game
2.27
68.1%
Scoring rate
81.6%
55.3%
BTTS rate
63.3%
1.38
Goals for per game
2.33
73.1%
Scoring rate
81.0%
53.8%
BTTS rate
76.2%
47
History Matches
49
1.40
Goals Mean
2.27
1.25
Goals Std
1.84
68.1%
Scored 1+ rate
81.6%
46.8%
Scored 2+ rate
55.1%
17.0%
Scored 3+ rate
38.8%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
2.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.53
Goals against per game
1.35
80.9%
Conceding rate
77.6%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.57
69.2%
Conceding rate
95.2%
47
History Matches
49
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.32
Conceded Std
1.17
38.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.7%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.2%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
4.8%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
4.8%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
49
0.90
Result entropy
0.93
1.96
Goal Difference Std
2.49
10.41
Stability score
6.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
41
15
Lead Matches
15
93.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.87
13
Trailing Matches
10
7.7%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
90.15
Rest days
97.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.68
0.80
Portability PPG Range
1.89
59.94
Portability Score
42.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-99.19
PPG-0.39
GF-0.86
GA0.18
PPG-0.12
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate13.5%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate26.0%
Failed-to-score rate7.9%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.86
Goals Std-0.59
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-0.95
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.02
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate1.6%
Conceded 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score3.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.53
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate13.3%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-1.09
Portability Score17.54
Rest days-7.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO-99.19
Current Opponent ELO99.19
Current ELO Difference-198.4
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Merelbeke

L
Merelbeke0–4Roeselare Daisel30 Oct · home
Pick: Merelbeke 44% · missed
D
Houtvenne1–1Merelbeke24 Oct · away
Pick: Merelbeke 43% · missed
W
Knokke0–3Merelbeke18 Oct · away
Pick: Knokke 48% · missed
D
Tienen0–0Merelbeke4 Oct · away
Pick: Merelbeke 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Heist

W
Heist4–0Houtvenne31 Oct · home
Pick: Heist 57% · hit
W
Zelzate1–5Heist24 Oct · away
Pick: Heist 47% · hit
W
Heist4–0Tienen21 Oct · home
Pick: Heist 55% · hit
L
Heist0–1Antwerp17 Oct · home
Pick: Antwerp 45% · hit
L
Knokke3–0Heist30 Aug · away
Pick: Knokke 46% · hit

About this match

Merelbeke and Heist meet in First Amateur Division on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Merelbeke win 37.1%, draw 22.1%, Heist win 40.8%. The pick is Heist win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.6%. Both teams to score: 58.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.