Millesimo vs Ligorna
Millesimo
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ligorna
Match result probability Model pick: Ligorna win
Millesimo win
27.0%
Draw
33.7%
Ligorna winPick
39.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.8%
No47.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%
How much we know
Millesimo history0 matches
Ligorna history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Ligorna
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Ligorna are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Ligorna are rated 125 Elo points higher
Elo 1,625 against 1,500. On rating alone Ligorna would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Millesimo
Ligorna
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1625.3
0
ELO · Matches
51
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1625.3
1625.3
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-125.3
Current ELO Difference
125.3
0.33
Expected score
0.67
0
History Matches
51
—
Residual Mean
0.12
—
Overperformance
58.68
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
2.60
—
Goals for per game
3.60
—
Goals against per game
1.20
—
Win rate
80.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.90
—
Goals for per game
2.00
—
Goals against per game
0.80
—
Win rate
50.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.76
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.40
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
51
—
PPG
2.02
—
Win rate
58.8%
—
Draw rate
25.5%
—
Loss rate
15.7%
—
Over 1.5 rate
72.5%
—
Over 2.5 rate
49.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
25
—
PPG
1.76
—
Win rate
48.0%
—
Draw rate
32.0%
—
Loss rate
20.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
0
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.82
—
Scoring rate
80.4%
—
BTTS rate
54.9%
—
Goals for per game
1.28
—
Scoring rate
72.0%
—
BTTS rate
48.0%
0
History Matches
51
—
Goals Mean
1.82
—
Goals Std
1.70
—
Scored 1+ rate
80.4%
—
Scored 2+ rate
49.0%
—
Scored 3+ rate
23.5%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
0.98
—
Conceding rate
66.7%
—
Goals against per game
1.04
—
Conceding rate
64.0%
0
History Matches
51
—
Conceded Mean
0.98
—
Conceded Std
0.92
—
Conceded 2+ rate
23.5%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
5.9%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
—
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
—
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
51
—
Result entropy
0.87
—
Goal Difference Std
1.87
—
Stability score
13.42
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
51
0
Lead Matches
21
—
Lead Win Rate
90.5%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.94
0
Trailing Matches
8
—
Non-loss rate
50.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
36
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.06
0
Long Rest History Matches
12
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.23
—
Portability PPG Range
0.45
—
Portability Score
68.85
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-125.3
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-51
History Matches-25
History Matches-51
History Matches-51
History Matches-51
Eligible Matches-51
Lead Matches-21
Trailing Matches-8
Halftime Coverage Matches-51
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-36
Long Rest History Matches-12
Current Team ELO-125.3
Current Opponent ELO125.3
Current ELO Difference-250.7
Expected score-0.35
History Matches-51
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Millesimo
L
Biellese4–1Millesimo1 Nov · away
Pick: Biellese 61% · hit D
Millesimo1–1Sanremese24 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 40% · hit W
Fezzanese0–4Millesimo18 Oct · away
Pick: Fezzanese 55% · missed L
Sanremese5–2Millesimo7 Oct · away
Pick: Sanremese 61% · hit L
Asti2–0Millesimo4 Oct · away
Pick: Asti 63% · hit Ligorna
D
Ligorna0–0Sestri Levante1 Nov · home
Pick: Ligorna 39% · missed W
Valenzana0–1Ligorna25 Oct · away
Pick: Ligorna 53% · hit W
Ligorna2–1Saluzzo4 Oct · home
Pick: Ligorna 56% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Millesimo and Ligorna meet in Serie D - Girone A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Millesimo win 27.0%, draw 33.7%, Ligorna win 39.3%. The pick is Ligorna win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.