Mirassol vs Atletico-MG
Match result probability Model pick: Atletico-MG win
Mirassol win
27.6%
Draw
30.0%
Atletico-MG winPick
42.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.3%
No49.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.1%
Under 2.550.9%
How much we know
Mirassol history70 matches
Atletico-MG history95 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Atletico-MG
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 20:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 21:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Atletico-MG are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Atletico-MG are rated 54 Elo points higher
Elo 1,603 against 1,550. On rating alone Atletico-MG would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.37 goals a game over 70 matches for Mirassol, against 1.28 over 95 for Atletico-MG.
-
Atletico-MG concede fewer
Mirassol concede 1.26 a game, Atletico-MG 0.92.
-
Mirassol games more often go over 2.5 goals
49% of Mirassol matches, against 38% for Atletico-MG. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atletico-MG@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1549.5
ELO
1603.4
70
ELO · Matches
95
1549.5
Current Team ELO
1603.4
1603.4
Current Opponent ELO
1549.5
-53.90
Current ELO Difference
53.90
0.42
Expected score
0.58
70
History Matches
95
0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
53.18
Overperformance
54.19
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals 90
70
Matches
95
1.44
PPG
1.59
38.6%
Win rate
42.1%
28.6%
Draw rate
32.6%
32.9%
Loss rate
25.3%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
63.2%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.1%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals 100
37
Matches
49
1.97
PPG
1.18
54.1%
Win rate
30.6%
35.1%
Draw rate
26.5%
10.8%
Loss rate
42.9%
89.2%
Over 1.5 rate
53.1%
59.5%
Over 2.5 rate
30.6%
29.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.3%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
37
History Matches
49
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.28
78.6%
Scoring rate
71.6%
61.4%
BTTS rate
45.3%
1.86
Goals for per game
0.92
97.3%
Scoring rate
59.2%
75.7%
BTTS rate
36.7%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.33
77.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
72.2%
BTTS rate
55.6%
70
History Matches
95
1.37
Goals Mean
1.28
1.08
Goals Std
1.16
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
71.6%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
35.8%
12.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.7%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.26
Goals against per game
0.92
81.4%
Conceding rate
62.1%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.04
75.7%
Conceding rate
65.3%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.22
94.4%
Conceding rate
83.3%
70
History Matches
95
1.26
Conceded Mean
0.92
0.97
Conceded Std
0.89
30.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.2%
11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.4%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
2.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.8%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.4%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
2.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.8%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
70
History Matches
95
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.44
0.69
Stability score
1.95
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
70
Eligible Matches
95
23
Lead Matches
28
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.81
21
Trailing Matches
22
28.6%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
95
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.00
Rest days
84.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
17
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.71
41
Normal Rest History Matches
63
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
20
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals 170
18
Matches
18
1.11
PPG
1.33
27.8%
Win rate
33.3%
27.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
44.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
18
Current Competition Matches
18
1.11
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.44
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.11
6
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.54
1.19
Portability PPG Range
1.70
54.92
Portability Score
48.20
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
70
Clean History Matches
95
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-53.90
PPG-0.15
GF0.09
GA0.34
PPG-0.22
PPG0.79
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-25
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches-25
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate7.0%
Scored 2+ rate4.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.95
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches-25
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.48
History Matches-25
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score-1.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches-25
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-25
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.56
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.51
Portability Score6.72
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-9
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.21
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.49
Current Team ELO-53.90
Current Opponent ELO53.90
Current ELO Difference-107.8
Expected score-0.15
History Matches-25
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Mirassol
W
Chapecoense-sc1–2Mirassol3 Nov · away
Pick: Chapecoense-sc 39% · missed L
Corinthians2–0Mirassol30 Oct · away
Pick: Corinthians 54% · hit D
Mirassol1–1Sao Paulo24 Oct · home
Pick: Mirassol 37% · missed W
Mirassol2–0Internacional16 Oct · home
Pick: Mirassol 38% · hit D
RB Bragantino1–1Mirassol7 Oct · away
Pick: RB Bragantino 53% · missed Atletico-MG
D
Atletico-MG1–1Gremio7 Nov · home
Pick: Atletico-MG 37% · missed L
Botafogo1–0Atletico-MG5 Nov · away
Pick: Botafogo 43% · hit L
Gremio2–0Atletico-MG1 Nov · away
Pick: Gremio 43% · hit L
Atletico-MG0–1Cruzeiro29 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico-MG 47% · missed L
Flamengo3–2Atletico-MG26 Oct · away
Pick: Flamengo 56% · hit About this match
Mirassol and Atletico-MG meet in Serie A on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:30 UTC. The match is played at José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Mirassol win 27.6%, draw 30.0%, Atletico-MG win 42.4%. The pick is Atletico-MG win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.1%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.