Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama
Match result probability Model pick: Vasco DA Gama win
Chapecoense-sc win
33.8%
Draw
31.0%
Vasco DA Gama winPick
35.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.9%
No48.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.546.2%
Under 2.553.8%
How much we know
Chapecoense-sc history83 matches
Vasco DA Gama history93 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Vasco DA Gama
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 22:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 23:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.2%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Vasco DA Gama are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,523 against 1,525. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.24 goals a game over 83 matches for Chapecoense-sc, against 1.23 over 93 for Vasco DA Gama.
-
Chapecoense-sc concede fewer
Chapecoense-sc concede 1.16 a game, Vasco DA Gama 1.29.
-
Vasco DA Gama games more often go over 2.5 goals
41% of Chapecoense-sc matches, against 49% for Vasco DA Gama. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vasco DA Gama@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1523.3
ELO
1525.3
83
ELO · Matches
93
1523.3
Current Team ELO
1525.3
1525.3
Current Opponent ELO
1523.3
-2.04
Current ELO Difference
2.04
0.50
Expected score
0.50
83
History Matches
93
0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
51.09
Overperformance
51.42
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.10
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals 90
83
Matches
93
1.34
PPG
1.22
33.7%
Win rate
31.2%
32.5%
Draw rate
28.0%
33.7%
Loss rate
40.9%
69.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
41.0%
Over 2.5 rate
49.5%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals 100
41
Matches
46
1.80
PPG
0.98
48.8%
Win rate
23.9%
34.1%
Draw rate
26.1%
17.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.1%
51.2%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
41
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.24
Goals for per game
1.23
68.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
48.2%
BTTS rate
47.3%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.13
85.4%
Scoring rate
63.0%
53.7%
BTTS rate
45.7%
1.16
Goals for per game
0.89
68.4%
Scoring rate
63.2%
63.2%
BTTS rate
57.9%
83
History Matches
93
1.24
Goals Mean
1.23
1.22
Goals Std
1.23
68.7%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
33.7%
Scored 2+ rate
32.3%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
17.2%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.16
Goals against per game
1.29
69.9%
Conceding rate
71.0%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.48
58.5%
Conceding rate
73.9%
1.95
Goals against per game
1.63
89.5%
Conceding rate
89.5%
83
History Matches
93
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.01
Conceded Std
1.17
33.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.6%
9.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
30.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
30.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
30.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
83
History Matches
93
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.84
0.01
Stability score
1.20
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
83
Eligible Matches
93
21
Lead Matches
26
90.5%
Lead Win Rate
73.1%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.78
19
Trailing Matches
27
21.1%
Non-loss rate
37.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
93
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.08
Rest days
83.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
17
0.70
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.18
46
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
26
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals 170
19
Matches
19
0.68
PPG
0.89
10.5%
Win rate
21.1%
36.8%
Draw rate
26.3%
52.6%
Loss rate
52.6%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
19
Current Competition Matches
19
0.68
Current Competition PPG
0.89
-0.79
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.74
7
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.20
Portability PPG Range
1.11
52.91
Portability Score
60.16
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
83
Clean History Matches
93
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-2.04
PPG0.12
GF0.02
GA-0.13
PPG-0.21
PPG0.83
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-10
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate2.0%
Scored 2+ rate1.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-10
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score-1.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate17.4%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.05
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score-7.25
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.37
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO-2.04
Current Opponent ELO2.04
Current ELO Difference-4.08
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-10
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Chapecoense-sc
L
Chapecoense-sc1–2Mirassol3 Nov · home
Pick: Chapecoense-sc 39% · missed L
RB Bragantino3–0Chapecoense-sc28 Oct · away
Pick: RB Bragantino 56% · hit W
Chapecoense-sc2–1Fluminense24 Oct · home
Pick: Fluminense 41% · missed L
Botafogo1–0Chapecoense-sc17 Oct · away
Pick: Botafogo 61% · hit L
Chapecoense-sc1–4Atletico Paranaense12 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Paranaense 44% · hit Vasco DA Gama
W
Atletico Paranaense1–3Vasco DA Gama4 Nov · away
Pick: Atletico Paranaense 51% · missed L
Palmeiras1–0Vasco DA Gama1 Nov · away
Pick: Palmeiras 50% · hit L
Vasco DA Gama1–4Flamengo29 Oct · home
Pick: Flamengo 50% · hit W
Vasco DA Gama3–2Corinthians24 Oct · home
Pick: Vasco DA Gama 35% · hit L
Vasco DA Gama1–3Boca Juniors21 Oct · home
Pick: Vasco DA Gama 39% · missed About this match
Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama meet in Serie A on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 23:30 UTC. The match is played at Arena Condá, Chapeco. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Chapecoense-sc win 33.8%, draw 31.0%, Vasco DA Gama win 35.2%. The pick is Vasco DA Gama win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.2%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.