ScoreProb
Ligue A Burundi Round 11 2026

Musongati vs Young Star

Musongati Home · Elo 1,605
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Young Star Away · Elo 1,489
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Musongati win
Musongati winPick
65.0%
Draw
24.9%
Young Star win
10.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes35.8%
No64.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.9%
Under 2.557.1%

How much we know

Musongati history46 matches
Young Star history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Musongati are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Musongati are rated 116 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,605 against 1,489. On rating alone Musongati would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Musongati score far more

    1.50 goals a game over 46 matches for Musongati, against 0.00 over 2 for Young Star.

  • Musongati concede fewer

    Musongati concede 0.67 a game, Young Star 1.00.

  • Musongati games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Musongati matches, against 0% for Young Star. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Musongati
Young Star
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1604.8
ELO
1488.6
46
ELO · Matches
2
1604.8
Current Team ELO
1488.6
1488.6
Current Opponent ELO
1604.8
116.2
Current ELO Difference
-116.2
0.66
Expected score
0.34
46
History Matches
2
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.29
58.00
Overperformance
47.41
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.29
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.50
1.80
Goals for per game
0.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
2
1.70
PPG
0.50
1.10
Goals for per game
0.00
0.70
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.00
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.50
58.7%
Win rate
0.0%
23.9%
Draw rate
50.0%
17.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
56.5%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
19.6%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
1
2.00
PPG
0.00
58.3%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
16.7%
Loss rate
100.0%
45.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
29.2%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
24
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
0.00
73.9%
Scoring rate
0.0%
34.8%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.38
Goals for per game
0.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
0.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
46
History Matches
2
1.50
Goals Mean
0.00
1.35
Goals Std
0.00
73.9%
Scored 1+ rate
0.0%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
23.9%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.67
Goals against per game
1.00
45.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.00
41.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
46
History Matches
2
0.67
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.89
Conceded Std
1.00
17.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
2.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
54.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
58.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
54.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
58.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
54.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
2
0.87
Result entropy
0.63
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.00
12.70
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
2
15
Lead Matches
0
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.89
Lead Points Retention
—
8
Trailing Matches
1
25.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.97
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
0
2.12
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
16
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.16
Portability PPG Std
—
0.32
Portability PPG Range
—
75.81
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO116.2
PPG1.50
GF1.50
GA-0.33
PPG0.00
PPG2.00
PPG1.50
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches44
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.74
History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate58.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.67
History Matches44
Goals Mean1.50
Goals Std1.35
Scored 1+ rate73.9%
Scored 2+ rate39.1%
Scored 3+ rate23.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std1.30
History Matches44
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.33
Conceded 3+ rate2.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches44
Result entropy0.24
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score-24.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches38
Lead Matches15
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches38
First Half Goals For Mean0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-0.11
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches26
Long Rest History Matches16
Current Team ELO116.2
Current Opponent ELO-116.2
Current ELO Difference232.4
Expected score0.32
History Matches44
Residual Mean0.40
Overperformance10.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Musongati

D
Musongati1–1Olympic Star25 Oct · home
Pick: Musongati 56% · missed
L
Inter Star2–1Musongati18 Oct · away
Pick: Musongati 40% · missed
W
Panthere Noir0–2Musongati14 Oct · away
Pick: Musongati 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Young Star

L
Young Star0–1Panthere Noir30 Oct · home
Pick: Young Star 39% · missed
L
Le Messager Ngozi1–0Young Star25 Oct · away
Pick: Le Messager Ngozi 62% · hit
D
Young Star0–0Never Give Up Academy17 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Musongati and Young Star meet in Ligue A on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Musongati win 65.0%, draw 24.9%, Young Star win 10.1%. The pick is Musongati win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.9%. Both teams to score: 35.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.