ScoreProb
Ligue A Burundi Round 11 2026

Olympic Star vs Flambeau du Centre

Olympic Star Home · Elo 1,501
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Flambeau du Centre Away · Elo 1,570
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Flambeau du Centre win
Olympic Star win
32.0%
Draw
26.9%
Flambeau du Centre winPick
41.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.7%
No55.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.4%
Under 2.556.6%

How much we know

Olympic Star history45 matches
Flambeau du Centre history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Flambeau du Centre are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Flambeau du Centre are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,570 against 1,501. On rating alone Flambeau du Centre would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Flambeau du Centre score more

    1.13 goals a game over 45 matches for Olympic Star, against 1.53 over 47 for Flambeau du Centre.

  • Flambeau du Centre concede fewer

    Olympic Star concede 1.04 a game, Flambeau du Centre 0.83.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Olympic Star matches, against 47% for Flambeau du Centre. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Olympic Star
Flambeau du Centre
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1501.2
ELO
1569.6
45
ELO · Matches
47
1501.2
Current Team ELO
1569.6
1569.6
Current Opponent ELO
1501.2
-68.46
Current ELO Difference
68.46
0.40
Expected score
0.60
45
History Matches
47
0.00
Residual Mean
0.07
50.26
Overperformance
55.17
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
47
1.33
PPG
1.72
33.3%
Win rate
46.8%
33.3%
Draw rate
31.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
21.3%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.8%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.8%
17.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.4%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
23
1.57
PPG
1.61
39.1%
Win rate
39.1%
39.1%
Draw rate
43.5%
21.7%
Loss rate
17.4%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.53
66.7%
Scoring rate
76.6%
53.3%
BTTS rate
48.9%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
73.9%
Scoring rate
82.6%
56.5%
BTTS rate
52.2%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
45
History Matches
47
1.13
Goals Mean
1.53
1.24
Goals Std
1.49
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
76.6%
24.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.4%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
21.3%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.04
Goals against per game
0.83
68.9%
Conceding rate
59.6%
0.87
Goals against per game
0.91
65.2%
Conceding rate
52.2%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
45
History Matches
47
1.04
Conceded Mean
0.83
0.92
Conceded Std
0.83
26.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.1%
8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.3%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
0.91
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
47
1.00
Result entropy
0.95
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.72
0.00
Stability score
4.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
41
10
Lead Matches
18
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.83
8
Trailing Matches
5
12.5%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.17
0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.00
Rest days
73.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
20
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.24
Portability PPG Range
0.62
80.75
Portability Score
66.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-68.46
PPG-0.39
GF-0.40
GA0.21
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.04
PPG0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate9.9%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate8.7%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.49
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score-4.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.49
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate2.2%
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.28
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score14.47
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO-68.46
Current Opponent ELO68.46
Current ELO Difference-136.9
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Olympic Star

D
Inter Star2–2Olympic Star29 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Star 46% · missed
D
Musongati1–1Olympic Star25 Oct · away
Pick: Musongati 56% · missed
W
Olympic Star2–0Panthere Noir18 Oct · home
Pick: Olympic Star 52% · hit
D
Rukinzo0–0Olympic Star30 Aug · away
Pick: Rukinzo 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Flambeau du Centre

W
Panthere Noir0–2Flambeau du Centre25 Oct · away
Pick: Flambeau du Centre 39% · hit
L
Flambeau du Centre0–1Le Messager Ngozi18 Oct · home
Pick: Flambeau du Centre 44% · missed
W
Bumamuru0–1Flambeau du Centre4 Oct · away
Pick: Flambeau du Centre 40% · hit
L
Royal Vision2–1Flambeau du Centre29 Aug · away
Pick: Royal Vision 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Olympic Star and Flambeau du Centre meet in Ligue A on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Olympic Star win 32.0%, draw 26.9%, Flambeau du Centre win 41.0%. The pick is Flambeau du Centre win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.4%. Both teams to score: 44.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.