ScoreProb
Ligue A Burundi Round 11 2026

Panthere Noir vs Vital'O

Panthere Noir Home · Elo 1,492
Full time
0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Vital'O Away · Elo 1,577
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Model pick: Vital'O win
Panthere Noir win
27.1%
Draw
33.0%
Vital'O winPick
39.9%

No verdict for this match

ScoreProb only grades predictions that were published before kickoff, and none was published for this match.

Both teams to score

Yes46.5%
No53.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.0%
Under 2.555.0%

How much we know

Panthere Noir history2 matches
Vital'O history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 0–0
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Vital'O are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vital'O are rated 85 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,577 against 1,492. On rating alone Vital'O would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Vital'O score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 2 matches for Panthere Noir, against 1.62 over 45 for Vital'O.

  • Vital'O concede fewer

    Panthere Noir concede 1.50 a game, Vital'O 0.93.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Panthere Noir matches, against 49% for Vital'O. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Panthere Noir
Vital'O
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.0
ELO
1577.4
2
ELO · Matches
45
1492.0
Current Team ELO
1577.4
1577.4
Current Opponent ELO
1492.0
-85.41
Current ELO Difference
85.41
0.38
Expected score
0.62
2
History Matches
45
-0.20
Residual Mean
0.09
48.20
Overperformance
55.90
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
0.50
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
2.10
1.00
Goals for per game
2.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.10
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
45
0.50
PPG
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
51.1%
50.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
22.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.9%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
22
1.00
PPG
1.91
0.0%
Win rate
54.5%
100.0%
Draw rate
27.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
18.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
1
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.62
100.0%
Scoring rate
82.2%
100.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
86.4%
100.0%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
45
1.00
Goals Mean
1.62
0.00
Goals Std
1.54
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.2%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
0.93
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.82
100.0%
Conceding rate
59.1%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
45
1.50
Conceded Mean
0.93
0.50
Conceded Std
0.80
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.4%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.2%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
45
0.63
Result entropy
0.94
0.50
Goal Difference Std
1.58
36.91
Stability score
6.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
1
Eligible Matches
39
0
Lead Matches
14
—
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.90
1
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.00
Rest days
73.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
20
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.10
1
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.37
—
Portability PPG Range
0.74
—
Portability Score
57.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-85.41
PPG-1.30
GF-0.62
GA0.57
PPG-1.50
PPG-0.91
PPG-1.10
PPG-1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-43
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate-0.41
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-43
Goals Mean-0.62
Goals Std-1.54
Scored 1+ rate17.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.40
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-2.10
History Matches-43
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Conceded 2+ rate25.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches-43
Result entropy-0.31
Goal Difference Std-1.08
Stability score30.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.59
Eligible Matches-38
Lead Matches-14
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-38
First Half Goals For Mean-0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Long Rest History Matches-22
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Current Team ELO-85.41
Current Opponent ELO85.41
Current ELO Difference-170.8
Expected score-0.24
History Matches-43
Residual Mean-0.28
Overperformance-7.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Panthere Noir

W
Young Star0–1Panthere Noir30 Oct · away
Pick: Young Star 39% · missed
L
Panthere Noir0–2Flambeau du Centre25 Oct · home
Pick: Flambeau du Centre 39% · hit
L
Olympic Star2–0Panthere Noir18 Oct · away
Pick: Olympic Star 52% · hit
L
Panthere Noir0–2Musongati14 Oct · home
Pick: Musongati 42% · hit
L
Le Messager Ngozi1–0Panthere Noir4 Oct · away
Pick: Le Messager Ngozi 61% · hit

Vital'O

W
Vital'O2–0Le Messager Ngozi30 Oct · home
Pick: Vital'O 38% · hit
L
Never Give Up Academy2–1Vital'O25 Oct · away
Pick: Vital'O 40% · missed
D
Vital'O0–0Muzinga18 Oct · home
Pick: Vital'O 56% · missed
L
Bumamuru3–1Vital'O15 Oct · away
Pick: Vital'O 41% · missed
L
Royal Vision5–0Vital'O4 Oct · away
Pick: Royal Vision 37% · hit

Match report

Panthere Noir and Vital'O finished 0–0 in Ligue A on Wednesday 4 November 2026. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Panthere Noir win 27.1%, draw 33.0%, Vital'O win 39.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.