Rukinzo vs Inter Star
Rukinzo
Full time
2–1
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Inter Star
What we said before kickoff Model pick: Rukinzo win
Rukinzo winPick
54.4%
Draw
24.7%
Inter Star win
20.9%
No verdict for this match
ScoreProb only grades predictions that were published before kickoff, and none was published for this match.
Both teams to score
Yes52.6%
No47.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.9%
Under 2.546.1%
How much we know
Rukinzo history45 matches
Inter Star history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full time: 2–1
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Rukinzo are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Rukinzo are rated 111 Elo points higher
Elo 1,571 against 1,460. On rating alone Rukinzo would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Rukinzo score more
1.62 goals a game over 45 matches for Rukinzo, against 1.40 over 45 for Inter Star.
-
Rukinzo concede fewer
Rukinzo concede 0.91 a game, Inter Star 1.47.
-
Inter Star games more often go over 2.5 goals
49% of Rukinzo matches, against 62% for Inter Star. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rukinzo
Inter Star
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1570.8
ELO
1459.7
45
ELO · Matches
45
1570.8
Current Team ELO
1459.7
1459.7
Current Opponent ELO
1570.8
111.1
Current ELO Difference
-111.1
0.65
Expected score
0.35
45
History Matches
45
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.04
55.53
Overperformance
47.16
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.20
2.20
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.90
1.70
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.32
Overall performance9 signals 90
45
Matches
45
1.67
PPG
1.16
46.7%
Win rate
31.1%
26.7%
Draw rate
22.2%
26.7%
Loss rate
46.7%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.6%
48.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals 100
23
Matches
22
1.70
PPG
1.09
47.8%
Win rate
31.8%
26.1%
Draw rate
13.6%
26.1%
Loss rate
54.5%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
23
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.62
Goals for per game
1.40
71.1%
Scoring rate
71.1%
46.7%
BTTS rate
62.2%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.27
65.2%
Scoring rate
63.6%
39.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
45
History Matches
45
1.62
Goals Mean
1.40
1.48
Goals Std
1.40
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
28.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.8%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.91
Goals against per game
1.47
62.2%
Conceding rate
82.2%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.36
60.9%
Conceding rate
81.8%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
45
History Matches
45
0.91
Conceded Mean
1.47
0.84
Conceded Std
1.00
26.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.7%
2.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.6%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
45
History Matches
45
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.76
3.46
Stability score
4.14
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
39
Eligible Matches
30
14
Lead Matches
6
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.83
10
Trailing Matches
11
40.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.97
Rest days
75.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.82
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.20
0.05
Portability PPG Range
0.39
95.12
Portability Score
71.69
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
45
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO111.1
PPG0.51
GF0.22
GA-0.56
PPG1.50
PPG0.60
PPG2.00
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate20.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate11.1%
Scored 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.56
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.37
History Matches0
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score-0.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.94
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate9.5%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate12.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.34
Portability Score23.43
Rest days1.97
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.85
Current Team ELO111.1
Current Opponent ELO-111.1
Current ELO Difference222.2
Expected score0.31
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance8.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.31
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Rukinzo
L
Royal Vision1–0Rukinzo31 Oct · away
Pick: Royal Vision 38% · hit W
Rukinzo1–0Aigle Noir24 Oct · home
Pick: Aigle Noir 41% · missed W
Kayanza United1–3Rukinzo18 Oct · away
Pick: Rukinzo 43% · hit D
Rukinzo0–0Olympic Star30 Aug · home
Pick: Rukinzo 56% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Inter Star
D
Inter Star2–2Olympic Star29 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Star 46% · missed W
Inter Star2–1Musongati18 Oct · home
Pick: Musongati 40% · missed D
Kayanza United1–1Inter Star4 Oct · away
Pick: Kayanza United 46% · missed L
Ngozi City2–1Inter Star30 Aug · away
Pick: Ngozi City 48% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Rukinzo and Inter Star finished 2–1 in Ligue A on Wednesday 4 November 2026. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Rukinzo win 54.4%, draw 24.7%, Inter Star win 20.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.