Nacional Potosí vs Oriente Petrolero
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Nacional Potosí win
Nacional Potosí winPick
51.9%
Draw
19.3%
Oriente Petrolero win
28.8%
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
GoalT. Tobar · assist M. Tomianovic
22' 24'
GoalN. Roldan · assist D. Roca
Our pre-match picks, right now
Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.
Match resultPick: Nacional Potosí win · 51.9%
Level: 1–1 Both teams to scorePick: Yes · 60.8%
Already in Over 2.5 goalsPick: Over · 66.3%
Needs 1 more goal The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.
Both teams to score
Yes60.8%
No39.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.566.3%
Under 2.533.7%
How much we know
Nacional Potosí history67 matches
Oriente Petrolero history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 22:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Nacional Potosí are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,480 against 1,479. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.57 goals a game over 67 matches for Nacional Potosí, against 1.66 over 56 for Oriente Petrolero.
-
Nacional Potosí concede fewer
Nacional Potosí concede 1.49 a game, Oriente Petrolero 1.91.
-
Oriente Petrolero games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Nacional Potosí matches, against 71% for Oriente Petrolero. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oriente Petrolero@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1480.2
ELO
1479.3
67
ELO · Matches
56
1480.2
Current Team ELO
1479.3
1479.3
Current Opponent ELO
1480.2
0.88
Current ELO Difference
-0.88
0.50
Expected score
0.50
67
History Matches
56
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.34
Overperformance
47.58
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
3.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
2.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals 90
67
Matches
56
1.34
PPG
1.18
38.8%
Win rate
32.1%
17.9%
Draw rate
21.4%
43.3%
Loss rate
46.4%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
91.1%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
51.8%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
33
1.77
PPG
0.67
54.8%
Win rate
15.2%
12.9%
Draw rate
21.2%
32.3%
Loss rate
63.6%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
75.8%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
54.5%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
31
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.66
73.1%
Scoring rate
83.9%
52.2%
BTTS rate
67.9%
1.87
Goals for per game
1.33
83.9%
Scoring rate
81.8%
48.4%
BTTS rate
81.8%
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
56
1.57
Goals Mean
1.66
1.37
Goals Std
1.18
73.1%
Scored 1+ rate
83.9%
46.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
23.9%
Scored 3+ rate
23.2%
1.87
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.49
Goals against per game
1.91
77.6%
Conceding rate
83.9%
1.19
Goals against per game
2.52
61.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
—
Goals against per game
2.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
56
1.49
Conceded Mean
1.91
1.32
Conceded Std
1.46
43.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.1%
14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.8%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
2.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
67
History Matches
56
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
2.05
Goal Difference Std
2.15
5.53
Stability score
4.32
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
67
Eligible Matches
56
25
Lead Matches
19
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.79
23
Trailing Matches
18
17.4%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
70.96
Rest days
71.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.13
35
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
0.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
100.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
0.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
8
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.49
1.41
Portability PPG Range
1.30
51.15
Portability Score
50.32
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
67
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO0.88
PPG0.16
GF-0.09
GA-0.42
PPG1.11
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate10.8%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate38.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.42
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-1.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score1.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range0.11
Portability Score0.83
Rest days-0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.16
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO0.88
Current Opponent ELO-0.88
Current ELO Difference1.76
Expected score0.00
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Nacional Potosí
D
Real Oruro1–1Nacional Potosí31 Oct · away
Pick: Nacional Potosí 43% · missed W
Nacional Potosí3–0Guabirá26 Oct · home
Pick: Nacional Potosí 47% · hit L
Oriente Petrolero3–2Nacional Potosí22 Oct · away
Pick: Oriente Petrolero 37% · hit L
Nacional Potosí0–1Bolívar18 Oct · home
Pick: Bolívar 55% · hit W
Always Ready2–3Nacional Potosí8 Oct · away
Pick: Always Ready 64% · missed Oriente Petrolero
D
Oriente Petrolero1–1Aurora31 Oct · home
Pick: Oriente Petrolero 48% · missed W
Oriente Petrolero2–1The Strongest25 Oct · home
Pick: Oriente Petrolero 39% · hit W
Oriente Petrolero3–2Nacional Potosí22 Oct · home
Pick: Oriente Petrolero 37% · hit D
Guabirá1–1Oriente Petrolero18 Oct · away
Pick: Guabirá 44% · missed L
Guabirá2–1Oriente Petrolero4 Oct · away
Pick: Guabirá 59% · hit About this match
Nacional Potosí and Oriente Petrolero meet in Copa de la División Profesional on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Nacional Potosí win 51.9%, draw 19.3%, Oriente Petrolero win 28.8%. The pick is Nacional Potosí win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.3%. Both teams to score: 60.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.