ScoreProb
Copa de la División Profesional Bolivia Quarter-finals 2026

The Strongest vs Always Ready

The Strongest Home · Elo 1,577
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Always Ready Away · Elo 1,625
Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Always Ready win
The Strongest win
34.4%
Draw
22.0%
Always Ready winPick
43.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.3%
No39.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.3%
Under 2.533.7%

How much we know

The Strongest history65 matches
Always Ready history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 00:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Always Ready are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Always Ready are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,625 against 1,577. On rating alone Always Ready would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Always Ready score more

    2.06 goals a game over 65 matches for The Strongest, against 2.62 over 78 for Always Ready.

  • Always Ready concede fewer

    The Strongest concede 1.46 a game, Always Ready 1.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of The Strongest matches, against 65% for Always Ready. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
The Strongest
Always Ready@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1577.4
ELO
1625.5
65
ELO · Matches
78
1577.4
Current Team ELO
1625.5
1625.5
Current Opponent ELO
1577.4
-48.13
Current ELO Difference
48.13
0.43
Expected score
0.57
65
History Matches
78
0.06
Residual Mean
0.08
54.49
Overperformance
56.68
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.10
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.50
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
78
1.82
PPG
2.05
53.8%
Win rate
62.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
26.2%
Loss rate
20.5%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
69.2%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
41.5%
Over 3.5 rate
51.3%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
36
2.18
PPG
1.58
66.7%
Win rate
47.2%
18.2%
Draw rate
16.7%
15.2%
Loss rate
36.1%
93.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
78.8%
Over 2.5 rate
69.4%
51.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
33
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.06
Goals for per game
2.62
84.6%
Scoring rate
88.5%
67.7%
BTTS rate
57.7%
2.61
Goals for per game
2.19
97.0%
Scoring rate
80.6%
75.8%
BTTS rate
63.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
100.0%
BTTS rate
—
65
History Matches
78
2.06
Goals Mean
2.62
1.54
Goals Std
1.94
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
88.5%
63.1%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
29.2%
Scored 3+ rate
41.0%
2.61
Venue Goals Mean
2.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
1.13
78.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.50
75.8%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
—
100.0%
Conceding rate
—
65
History Matches
78
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.28
Conceded Std
1.09
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.0%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
3.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
21.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
3.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
21.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
78
0.92
Result entropy
0.83
1.95
Goal Difference Std
2.32
8.43
Stability score
16.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
78
22
Lead Matches
37
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
83.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.87
23
Trailing Matches
14
47.8%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
30.4%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.51
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.08
Rest days
73.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
11
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.45
32
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.98
21
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.06
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
0
3.00
PPG
—
100.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1
Current Competition Matches
0
3.00
Current Competition PPG
—
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
11
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.65
1.13
Portability PPG Range
2.07
54.36
Portability Score
43.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-48.13
PPG-0.24
GF-0.55
GA0.33
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate2.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-13
Goals Mean-0.55
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate9.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-8.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.07
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate12.1%
Trailing Win Rate16.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches1
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.95
Portability Score10.94
Rest days2.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Current Team ELO-48.13
Current Opponent ELO48.13
Current ELO Difference-96.26
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-13
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

The Strongest

W
The Strongest4–2Gualberto Villarroel SJ1 Nov · home
Pick: The Strongest 56% · hit
L
Oriente Petrolero2–1The Strongest25 Oct · away
Pick: Oriente Petrolero 39% · hit
W
The Strongest2–1Always Ready18 Oct · home
Pick: Always Ready 47% · missed
L
Bolívar4–2The Strongest30 Aug · away
Pick: Bolívar 56% · hit
W
San Antonio Bulo Bulo0–3The Strongest26 Aug · away
Pick: The Strongest 48% · hit

Always Ready

W
Universitario de Vinto1–3Always Ready1 Nov · away
Pick: Always Ready 72% · hit
W
Always Ready5–1Real Oruro25 Oct · home
Pick: Always Ready 78% · hit
L
The Strongest2–1Always Ready18 Oct · away
Pick: Always Ready 47% · missed
W
Always Ready2–0Independiente Petrolero12 Oct · home
Pick: Always Ready 75% · hit
L
Always Ready2–3Nacional Potosí8 Oct · home
Pick: Always Ready 64% · missed

About this match

The Strongest and Always Ready meet in Copa de la División Profesional on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 00:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: The Strongest win 34.4%, draw 22.0%, Always Ready win 43.5%. The pick is Always Ready win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.3%. Both teams to score: 60.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.