ScoreProb
1. SNL Slovenia Round 15 2026

Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana

Nafta Home · Elo 1,591
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Olimpija Ljubljana Away · Elo 1,535
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nafta win
Nafta winPick
44.6%
Draw
23.7%
Olimpija Ljubljana win
31.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.2%
No43.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%

How much we know

Nafta history65 matches
Olimpija Ljubljana history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Nafta are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nafta are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,591 against 1,535. On rating alone Nafta would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Nafta score more

    1.77 goals a game over 65 matches for Nafta, against 1.50 over 78 for Olimpija Ljubljana.

  • Olimpija Ljubljana concede fewer

    Nafta concede 1.29 a game, Olimpija Ljubljana 1.12.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Nafta matches, against 51% for Olimpija Ljubljana. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nafta
Olimpija Ljubljana@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1590.5
ELO
1534.8
65
ELO · Matches
78
1590.5
Current Team ELO
1534.8
1534.8
Current Opponent ELO
1590.5
55.76
Current ELO Difference
-55.76
0.58
Expected score
0.42
65
History Matches
78
0.07
Residual Mean
0.03
55.32
Overperformance
52.28
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.10
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.90
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
78
1.82
PPG
1.55
52.3%
Win rate
43.6%
24.6%
Draw rate
24.4%
23.1%
Loss rate
32.1%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.6%
52.3%
Over 2.5 rate
51.3%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.8%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
36
1.85
PPG
1.19
54.5%
Win rate
30.6%
21.2%
Draw rate
27.8%
24.2%
Loss rate
41.7%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.2%
42.4%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
33
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
1.50
83.1%
Scoring rate
76.9%
58.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.25
87.9%
Scoring rate
69.4%
72.7%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
16.7%
65
History Matches
78
1.77
Goals Mean
1.50
1.41
Goals Std
1.26
83.1%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
50.8%
Scored 2+ rate
43.6%
21.5%
Scored 3+ rate
19.2%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.12
70.8%
Conceding rate
65.4%
1.58
Goals against per game
1.22
84.8%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.83
83.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
65
History Matches
78
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.27
Conceded Std
1.11
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.5%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
1.58
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
78
0.93
Result entropy
0.97
2.02
Goal Difference Std
1.78
6.94
Stability score
2.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
78
27
Lead Matches
30
85.2%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.77
18
Trailing Matches
19
27.8%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.93
Rest days
76.93
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
24
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.17
PPG
1.17
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.17
Current Competition PPG
1.17
0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
7
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.75
Portability PPG Range
1.00
43.43
Portability Score
56.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO55.76
PPG0.26
GF0.27
GA0.18
PPG0.00
PPG0.65
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-13
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate6.2%
Scored 2+ rate7.2%
Scored 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate4.4%
Conceded 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches-13
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score4.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.41
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate11.9%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate1.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.75
Portability Score-13.22
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.51
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO55.76
Current Opponent ELO-55.76
Current ELO Difference111.5
Expected score0.16
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nafta

L
Celje4–0Nafta1 Nov · away
Pick: Celje 60% · hit
D
Nafta0–0Aluminij28 Oct · home
Pick: Nafta 40% · missed
D
Mura0–0Nafta17 Oct · away
Pick: Nafta 38% · missed
L
Nafta2–3Maribor30 Aug · home
Pick: Maribor 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Olimpija Ljubljana

W
Maribor0–1Olimpija Ljubljana31 Oct · away
Pick: Maribor 48% · missed
D
Olimpija Ljubljana1–1Celje28 Oct · home
Pick: Celje 50% · missed
W
Aluminij0–1Olimpija Ljubljana16 Oct · away
Pick: Aluminij 50% · missed
D
Radomlje0–0Olimpija Ljubljana29 Aug · away
Pick: Olimpija Ljubljana 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nafta and Olimpija Ljubljana meet in 1. SNL on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Nafta win 44.6%, draw 23.7%, Olimpija Ljubljana win 31.7%. The pick is Nafta win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 56.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.