ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 2 Italy Round 8 2026

Napoli U19 vs Frosinone U19

Napoli U19 Home · Elo 1,546
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Frosinone U19 Away · Elo 1,528
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Napoli U19 win
Napoli U19 winPick
50.1%
Draw
28.6%
Frosinone U19 win
21.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.2%
No48.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.7%
Under 2.553.3%

How much we know

Napoli U19 history23 matches
Frosinone U19 history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Napoli U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,546 against 1,528. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Frosinone U19 score more

    1.43 goals a game over 23 matches for Napoli U19, against 1.67 over 15 for Frosinone U19.

  • Defences are close

    Napoli U19 concede 1.00 a game, Frosinone U19 1.07.

  • Frosinone U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Napoli U19 matches, against 60% for Frosinone U19. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 Dec 2025 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Napoli U19
Frosinone U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1545.8
ELO
1528.0
23
ELO · Matches
15
1545.8
Current Team ELO
1528.0
1528.0
Current Opponent ELO
1545.8
17.72
Current ELO Difference
-17.72
0.53
Expected score
0.47
23
History Matches
15
0.10
Residual Mean
0.09
55.47
Overperformance
53.71
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.80
0.90
Goals for per game
2.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
23
Matches
15
1.70
PPG
1.67
43.5%
Win rate
46.7%
39.1%
Draw rate
26.7%
17.4%
Loss rate
26.7%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
8
1.92
PPG
1.25
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
41.7%
Draw rate
50.0%
8.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.93
12
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.43
Goals for per game
1.67
82.6%
Scoring rate
80.0%
52.2%
BTTS rate
53.3%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.25
91.7%
Scoring rate
62.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
23
History Matches
15
1.43
Goals Mean
1.67
1.28
Goals Std
1.40
82.6%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
34.8%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
8.7%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
1.07
60.9%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.38
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
23
History Matches
15
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.07
0.98
Conceded Std
0.93
30.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.7%
8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
23
History Matches
15
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.70
5.93
Stability score
3.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
22
Eligible Matches
15
6
Lead Matches
4
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.83
6
Trailing Matches
3
66.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
22
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
332.1
Rest days
536.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
10
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
12
Long Rest History Matches
4
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.47
Portability PPG Std
—
0.94
Portability PPG Range
—
51.52
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
23
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO17.72
PPG0.03
GF-0.23
GA-0.07
PPG0.67
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate8.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score2.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-203.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO17.72
Current Opponent ELO-17.72
Current ELO Difference35.44
Expected score0.05
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Napoli U19

D
Monopoli U190–0Napoli U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Monopoli U19 46% · missed
W
Napoli U193–1Spezia U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Spezia U19 42% · missed
W
Napoli U191–0Bodø / Glimt U1920 Oct · home
Pick: Napoli U19 69% · hit
D
Bari U191–1Napoli U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Bari U19 47% · missed
L
Villarreal U195–0Napoli U1913 Oct · away
Pick: Napoli U19 43% · missed

Frosinone U19

L
Frosinone U191–2Latina U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Frosinone U19 65% · missed
L
Perugia U195–0Frosinone U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Perugia U19 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Napoli U19 and Frosinone U19 meet in Campionato Primavera - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Napoli U19 win 50.1%, draw 28.6%, Frosinone U19 win 21.3%. The pick is Napoli U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.7%. Both teams to score: 51.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.