ScoreProb
Premyer Liqa Azerbaijan Round 11 2026

Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz

Neftchi Baku Home · Elo 1,614
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kapaz Away · Elo 1,417
Palms Sports Arena, Baku Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Neftchi Baku win
Neftchi Baku winPick
73.0%
Draw
15.1%
Kapaz win
11.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.4%
No56.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%

How much we know

Neftchi Baku history63 matches
Kapaz history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.0%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Neftchi Baku are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Neftchi Baku are rated 196 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,417. On rating alone Neftchi Baku would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Neftchi Baku score far more

    1.65 goals a game over 63 matches for Neftchi Baku, against 0.74 over 58 for Kapaz.

  • Neftchi Baku concede fewer

    Neftchi Baku concede 1.03 a game, Kapaz 1.62.

  • Neftchi Baku games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Neftchi Baku matches, against 40% for Kapaz. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Neftchi Baku
Kapaz@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1613.6
ELO
1417.2
63
ELO · Matches
58
1613.6
Current Team ELO
1417.2
1417.2
Current Opponent ELO
1613.6
196.5
Current ELO Difference
-196.5
0.76
Expected score
0.24
63
History Matches
58
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.07
56.55
Overperformance
44.57
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.90
2.00
Goals for per game
0.50
0.80
Goals against per game
1.50
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.48
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.41
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
58
1.70
PPG
0.86
47.6%
Win rate
22.4%
27.0%
Draw rate
19.0%
25.4%
Loss rate
58.6%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
67.2%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
39.7%
30.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.4%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
31
1.50
PPG
0.68
40.0%
Win rate
16.1%
30.0%
Draw rate
19.4%
30.0%
Loss rate
64.5%
63.3%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.4%
36.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
30
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.65
Goals for per game
0.74
74.6%
Scoring rate
43.1%
47.6%
BTTS rate
29.3%
1.77
Goals for per game
0.58
76.7%
Scoring rate
35.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.8%
4.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
63
History Matches
58
1.65
Goals Mean
0.74
1.45
Goals Std
1.15
74.6%
Scored 1+ rate
43.1%
52.4%
Scored 2+ rate
17.2%
20.6%
Scored 3+ rate
6.9%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
0.58
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.62
63.5%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.87
63.3%
Conceding rate
77.4%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
58
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.10
Conceded Std
1.30
25.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.7%
7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.1%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
56.9%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
64.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
56.9%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
64.5%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
58
0.96
Result entropy
0.88
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.86
3.98
Stability score
12.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
58
25
Lead Matches
8
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.92
7
Trailing Matches
25
42.9%
Non-loss rate
8.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.34
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.97
Rest days
82.97
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
38
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.92
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
3.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.79
Portability PPG Range
0.31
61.37
Portability Score
79.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO196.5
PPG0.84
GF0.91
GA-0.59
PPG3.00
PPG0.82
PPG0.60
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.41
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.91
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate31.5%
Scored 2+ rate35.1%
Scored 3+ rate13.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.81
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.59
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches5
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score-8.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.63
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-18
Non-loss rate34.9%
Trailing Win Rate10.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean5.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.48
Portability Score-18.51
Rest days-8.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.95
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.83
Current Team ELO196.5
Current Opponent ELO-196.5
Current ELO Difference393.0
Expected score0.51
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance11.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Neftchi Baku

W
Şamaxı FK2–3Neftchi Baku1 Nov · away
Pick: Neftchi Baku 58% · hit
D
Neftchi Baku1–1Turan24 Oct · home
Pick: Neftchi Baku 54% · missed
D
Qarabag3–3Neftchi Baku17 Oct · away
Pick: Qarabag 51% · missed
L
Zira1–0Neftchi Baku30 Aug · away
Pick: Neftchi Baku 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kapaz

W
Kapaz1–0Imisli FK1 Nov · home
Pick: Imisli FK 41% · missed
W
Kapaz3–1Baku Sportinq28 Oct · home
Pick: Kapaz 41% · hit
W
Safa Baku1–2Kapaz24 Oct · away
Pick: Safa Baku 63% · missed
D
Kapaz1–1Zira18 Oct · home
Pick: Zira 68% · missed
W
Kapaz1–0Turan30 Aug · home
Pick: Turan 59% · missed

About this match

Neftchi Baku and Kapaz meet in Premyer Liqa on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Palms Sports Arena, Baku. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Neftchi Baku win 73.0%, draw 15.1%, Kapaz win 11.9%. The pick is Neftchi Baku win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 43.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.