ScoreProb
Superliga Denmark Round 14 2026

Odense vs Viborg

Odense Home · Elo 1,513
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Viborg Away · Elo 1,568
Nature Energy Park, Odense Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Viborg win
Odense win
30.1%
Draw
21.4%
Viborg winPick
48.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.4%
No41.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.9%
Under 2.541.1%

How much we know

Odense history69 matches
Viborg history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Viborg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Viborg are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,513. On rating alone Viborg would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.72 goals a game over 69 matches for Odense, against 1.63 over 73 for Viborg.

  • Viborg concede fewer

    Odense concede 1.57 a game, Viborg 1.34.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Odense matches, against 60% for Viborg. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Odense
Viborg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1513.2
ELO
1568.0
69
ELO · Matches
73
1513.2
Current Team ELO
1568.0
1568.0
Current Opponent ELO
1513.2
-54.87
Current ELO Difference
54.87
0.42
Expected score
0.58
69
History Matches
73
0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
50.45
Overperformance
53.55
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
0.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
73
1.36
PPG
1.55
36.2%
Win rate
45.2%
27.5%
Draw rate
19.2%
36.2%
Loss rate
35.6%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
74.0%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.3%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.9%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
37
1.67
PPG
1.19
48.5%
Win rate
29.7%
21.2%
Draw rate
29.7%
30.3%
Loss rate
40.5%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.0%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
39.4%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
33
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.72
Goals for per game
1.63
84.1%
Scoring rate
82.2%
68.1%
BTTS rate
58.9%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.43
90.9%
Scoring rate
75.7%
72.7%
BTTS rate
51.4%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
60.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
69
History Matches
73
1.72
Goals Mean
1.63
1.71
Goals Std
1.26
84.1%
Scored 1+ rate
82.2%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
47.9%
24.6%
Scored 3+ rate
21.9%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.57
Goals against per game
1.34
81.2%
Conceding rate
72.6%
1.52
Goals against per game
1.46
81.8%
Conceding rate
67.6%
1.20
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
69
History Matches
73
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.25
Conceded Std
1.25
44.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.0%
17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
73
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
2.28
Goal Difference Std
1.76
0.71
Stability score
5.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
72
26
Lead Matches
21
61.5%
Lead Win Rate
76.2%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.83
22
Trailing Matches
15
31.8%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.21
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
21
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.80
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.56
2.15
Portability PPG Range
1.63
42.24
Portability Score
47.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-54.87
PPG-0.19
GF0.09
GA0.22
PPG-1.20
PPG0.48
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate1.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate2.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score-4.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate5.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.40
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.53
Portability Score-5.15
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO-54.87
Current Opponent ELO54.87
Current ELO Difference-109.7
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Odense

W
Odense4–1Silkeborg1 Nov · home
Pick: Odense 46% · hit
L
FC Midtjylland2–1Odense29 Oct · away
Pick: FC Midtjylland 58% · hit
D
FC Copenhagen1–1Odense26 Oct · away
Pick: FC Copenhagen 59% · missed
W
Odense2–1Brondby18 Oct · home
Pick: Brondby 50% · missed
D
Lyngby1–1Odense30 Aug · away
Pick: Lyngby 43% · missed

Viborg

W
Viborg1–0AC Horsens1 Nov · home
Pick: Viborg 58% · hit
L
Aarhus2–1Viborg25 Oct · away
Pick: Viborg 43% · missed
L
Viborg1–2FC Midtjylland19 Oct · home
Pick: FC Midtjylland 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Odense and Viborg meet in Superliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Nature Energy Park, Odense. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Odense win 30.1%, draw 21.4%, Viborg win 48.5%. The pick is Viborg win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.9%. Both teams to score: 58.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.