ScoreProb
Liga 1 Moldova Round 13 2026

Oguzsport vs Făleşti

Oguzsport Home · Elo 1,473
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Făleşti Away · Elo 1,424
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oguzsport win
Oguzsport winPick
40.5%
Draw
24.0%
Făleşti win
35.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.4%
Under 2.538.6%

How much we know

Oguzsport history35 matches
Făleşti history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Oguzsport are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Oguzsport are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,473 against 1,424. On rating alone Oguzsport would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Oguzsport score more

    1.51 goals a game over 35 matches for Oguzsport, against 1.11 over 36 for Făleşti.

  • Oguzsport concede fewer

    Oguzsport concede 1.97 a game, Făleşti 2.25.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Oguzsport matches, against 61% for Făleşti. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oguzsport
Făleşti@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.8
ELO
1423.6
35
ELO · Matches
36
1472.8
Current Team ELO
1423.6
1423.6
Current Opponent ELO
1472.8
49.17
Current ELO Difference
-49.17
0.57
Expected score
0.43
35
History Matches
36
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.09
47.39
Overperformance
43.99
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.29
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
36
1.23
PPG
0.89
34.3%
Win rate
25.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
13.9%
45.7%
Loss rate
61.1%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
54.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
16
1.24
PPG
1.06
35.3%
Win rate
31.3%
17.6%
Draw rate
12.5%
47.1%
Loss rate
56.3%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.82
17
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.11
77.1%
Scoring rate
55.6%
57.1%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1.88
Goals for per game
1.44
82.4%
Scoring rate
62.5%
70.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.75
Goals for per game
0.67
50.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
35
History Matches
36
1.51
Goals Mean
1.11
1.36
Goals Std
1.68
77.1%
Scored 1+ rate
55.6%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.97
Goals against per game
2.25
74.3%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.88
Goals against per game
2.13
82.4%
Conceding rate
81.3%
0.25
Goals against per game
0.00
25.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
35
History Matches
36
1.97
Conceded Mean
2.25
2.06
Conceded Std
1.85
51.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.1%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
38.9%
1.88
Venue Conceded Mean
2.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
36
0.95
Result entropy
0.84
2.49
Goal Difference Std
2.58
4.72
Stability score
16.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
23
Eligible Matches
33
6
Lead Matches
6
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.67
7
Trailing Matches
16
14.3%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
23
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.83
Rest days
75.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.89
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
14
Normal Rest History Matches
15
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.60
11
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
1.75
PPG
2.33
50.0%
Win rate
66.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
25.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.75
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.72
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.56
61.19
Portability Score
40.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO49.17
PPG0.34
GF0.40
GA-0.28
PPG-0.58
PPG0.17
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.40
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate21.6%
Scored 2+ rate17.9%
Scored 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-11.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate1.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.64
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.58
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.17
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-0.81
Portability Score20.34
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match1.89
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO49.17
Current Opponent ELO-49.17
Current ELO Difference98.33
Expected score0.14
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Oguzsport

L
FC National Ialoveni4–0Oguzsport31 Oct · away
Pick: Oguzsport 53% · missed
L
Zimbru6–0Oguzsport28 Oct · away
Pick: Zimbru 73% · hit
W
Victoria Bardar0–1Oguzsport24 Oct · away
Pick: Victoria Bardar 39% · missed
W
Oguzsport2–1Vulturii Cutezători1 Sep · home
Pick: Oguzsport 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Făleşti

W
Făleşti4–3Victoria Bardar31 Oct · home
Pick: Făleşti 50% · hit
D
FC Stăuceni1–1Făleşti17 Oct · away
Pick: FC Stăuceni 45% · missed
L
Victoria Bardar5–3Făleşti1 Sep · away
Pick: Victoria Bardar 44% · hit
L
Făleşti1–2FC Stăuceni29 Aug · home
Pick: Făleşti 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Oguzsport and Făleşti meet in Liga 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Oguzsport win 40.5%, draw 24.0%, Făleşti win 35.5%. The pick is Oguzsport win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.4%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.