Oltul Curtişoara vs Vulturii Fărcăşeşti
Match result probability Model pick: Vulturii Fărcăşeşti win
Oltul Curtişoara win
38.3%
Draw
19.3%
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti winPick
42.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes60.1%
No39.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.569.8%
Under 2.530.2%
How much we know
Oltul Curtişoara history37 matches
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Vulturii Fărcăşeşti
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Vulturii Fărcăşeşti are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Oltul Curtişoara are rated 38 Elo points higher
Elo 1,537 against 1,500. On rating alone Oltul Curtişoara would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti score more
1.70 goals a game over 37 matches for Oltul Curtişoara, against 2.08 over 39 for Vulturii Fărcăşeşti.
-
Oltul Curtişoara concede fewer
Oltul Curtişoara concede 1.65 a game, Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 2.21.
-
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti games more often go over 2.5 goals
65% of Oltul Curtişoara matches, against 87% for Vulturii Fărcăşeşti. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1537.5
ELO
1499.6
37
ELO · Matches
39
1537.5
Current Team ELO
1499.6
1499.6
Current Opponent ELO
1537.5
37.91
Current ELO Difference
-37.91
0.55
Expected score
0.45
37
History Matches
39
0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
53.10
Overperformance
50.79
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
3.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.00
1.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.60
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals 90
37
Matches
39
1.73
PPG
1.38
51.4%
Win rate
41.0%
18.9%
Draw rate
15.4%
29.7%
Loss rate
43.6%
91.9%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
64.9%
Over 2.5 rate
87.2%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
71.8%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.45
Venue performance10 signals 100
18
Matches
17
1.89
PPG
0.82
55.6%
Win rate
23.5%
22.2%
Draw rate
11.8%
22.2%
Loss rate
64.7%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
82.4%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
82.4%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
18
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.70
Goals for per game
2.08
78.4%
Scoring rate
76.9%
54.1%
BTTS rate
71.8%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.82
83.3%
Scoring rate
82.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
76.5%
37
History Matches
39
1.70
Goals Mean
2.08
1.29
Goals Std
1.72
78.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
54.1%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
27.0%
Scored 3+ rate
38.5%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.82
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.65
Goals against per game
2.21
73.0%
Conceding rate
87.2%
1.22
Goals against per game
2.65
61.1%
Conceding rate
88.2%
37
History Matches
39
1.65
Conceded Mean
2.21
1.49
Conceded Std
1.40
43.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
64.1%
29.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
46.2%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
2.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
37
History Matches
39
0.93
Result entropy
0.92
2.12
Goal Difference Std
2.45
7.35
Stability score
7.57
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
25
Eligible Matches
30
5
Lead Matches
11
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.82
10
Trailing Matches
12
40.0%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.27
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
93.90
Rest days
107.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
19
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
17
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.67
Portability PPG Range
1.00
66.29
Portability Score
54.88
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
37
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO37.91
PPG0.35
GF-0.37
GA-0.56
PPG1.07
PPG1.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate14.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate27.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.42
Scored 1+ rate1.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.56
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate14.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-0.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.74
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate31.7%
Trailing Win Rate11.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score11.42
Rest days-14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.18
Current Team ELO37.91
Current Opponent ELO-37.91
Current ELO Difference75.82
Expected score0.11
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Oltul Curtişoara
L
CSM Targu Jiu3–1Oltul Curtişoara6 Nov · away
Pick: Oltul Curtişoara 41% · missed W
Jiul Petroşani0–3Oltul Curtişoara30 Oct · away
Pick: Jiul Petroşani 44% · missed W
Oltul Curtişoara4–2Unirea Bascov24 Oct · home
Pick: Oltul Curtişoara 48% · hit W
Petrolul Hartiesti1–2Oltul Curtişoara17 Oct · away
Pick: Oltul Curtişoara 38% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti
L
CSM Targu Jiu2–1Vulturii Fărcăşeşti30 Oct · away
Pick: CSM Targu Jiu 40% · hit D
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti0–0Jiul Petroşani24 Oct · home
Pick: Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 42% · missed L
Unirea Bascov1–0Vulturii Fărcăşeşti16 Oct · away
Pick: Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 46% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Oltul Curtişoara and Vulturii Fărcăşeşti meet in Liga III - Serie 6 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Oltul Curtişoara win 38.3%, draw 19.3%, Vulturii Fărcăşeşti win 42.4%. The pick is Vulturii Fărcăşeşti win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.8%. Both teams to score: 60.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.