Păușești vs Jiul Petroşani
Match result probability Model pick: Jiul Petroşani win
Păușești win
30.6%
Draw
28.9%
Jiul Petroşani winPick
40.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.0%
No49.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.4%
Under 2.547.6%
How much we know
Păușești history25 matches
Jiul Petroşani history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Jiul Petroşani
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Jiul Petroşani are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Jiul Petroşani are rated 54 Elo points higher
Elo 1,524 against 1,471. On rating alone Jiul Petroşani would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Jiul Petroşani score more
1.36 goals a game over 25 matches for Păușești, against 1.63 over 35 for Jiul Petroşani.
-
Jiul Petroşani concede fewer
Păușești concede 1.44 a game, Jiul Petroşani 0.97.
-
Păușești games more often go over 2.5 goals
56% of Păușești matches, against 43% for Jiul Petroşani. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jiul Petroşani@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1470.7
ELO
1524.4
25
ELO · Matches
35
1470.7
Current Team ELO
1524.4
1524.4
Current Opponent ELO
1470.7
-53.63
Current ELO Difference
53.63
0.42
Expected score
0.58
25
History Matches
35
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
47.72
Overperformance
52.69
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals 90
25
Matches
35
1.36
PPG
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
45.7%
16.0%
Draw rate
22.9%
44.0%
Loss rate
31.4%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.6%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.1%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals 100
15
Matches
16
1.73
PPG
1.63
53.3%
Win rate
43.8%
13.3%
Draw rate
31.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
15
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.36
Goals for per game
1.63
68.0%
Scoring rate
74.3%
40.0%
BTTS rate
37.1%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.75
66.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
26.7%
BTTS rate
37.5%
25
History Matches
35
1.36
Goals Mean
1.63
1.23
Goals Std
1.53
68.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
44.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
16.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.44
Goals against per game
0.97
64.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.80
Goals against per game
0.94
46.7%
Conceding rate
56.3%
25
History Matches
35
1.44
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.39
Conceded Std
0.94
44.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.4%
24.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.7%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
0.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
53.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
53.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
25
History Matches
35
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
2.00
Goal Difference Std
2.03
7.07
Stability score
3.61
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
20
Eligible Matches
19
7
Lead Matches
6
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.89
7
Trailing Matches
4
28.6%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
19
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.26
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
100.9
Rest days
93.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
14
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
10
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
—
Portability PPG Std
0.37
—
Portability PPG Range
1.00
—
Portability Score
57.49
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
25
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-53.63
PPG-0.24
GF-0.27
GA0.47
PPG0.11
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate1.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.36
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.45
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate12.6%
Conceded 3+ rate18.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches-10
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score3.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.70
Current Team ELO-53.63
Current Opponent ELO53.63
Current ELO Difference-107.3
Expected score-0.15
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-4.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Păușești
W
Unirea Bascov1–3Păușești6 Nov · away
Pick: Unirea Bascov 51% · missed W
Petrolul Hartiesti0–3Păușești31 Oct · away
Pick: Păușești 39% · hit W
Păușești2–1Academica Balș24 Oct · home
Pick: Academica Balș 36% · missed D
Minerul Lupeni1–1Păușești17 Oct · away
Pick: Minerul Lupeni 64% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Jiul Petroşani
L
Jiul Petroşani0–3Oltul Curtişoara30 Oct · home
Pick: Jiul Petroşani 44% · missed D
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti0–0Jiul Petroşani24 Oct · away
Pick: Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Păușești and Jiul Petroşani meet in Liga III - Serie 6 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Păușești win 30.6%, draw 28.9%, Jiul Petroşani win 40.5%. The pick is Jiul Petroşani win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.4%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.