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Júniores U19 Portugal Round 10 2026

Oriental U19 vs Mafra U19

Oriental U19 Home · Elo 1,507
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mafra U19 Away · Elo 1,484
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oriental U19 win
Oriental U19 winPick
36.2%
Draw
30.6%
Mafra U19 win
33.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.8%
No56.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.2%
Under 2.554.8%

How much we know

Oriental U19 history3 matches
Mafra U19 history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.2%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Oriental U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,507 against 1,484. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Mafra U19 score far more

    0.67 goals a game over 3 matches for Oriental U19, against 1.48 over 40 for Mafra U19.

  • Oriental U19 concede fewer

    Oriental U19 concede 0.67 a game, Mafra U19 1.50.

  • Mafra U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Oriental U19 matches, against 55% for Mafra U19. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oriental U19
Mafra U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.4
ELO
1483.7
3
ELO · Matches
40
1507.4
Current Team ELO
1483.7
1483.7
Current Opponent ELO
1507.4
23.68
Current ELO Difference
-23.68
0.53
Expected score
0.47
3
History Matches
40
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.02
51.21
Overperformance
48.68
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
1.33
PPG
2.00
0.67
Goals for per game
1.40
0.67
Goals against per game
0.60
33.3%
Win rate
60.0%
3
Matches
10
1.33
PPG
1.40
0.67
Goals for per game
1.10
0.67
Goals against per game
0.80
33.3%
Win rate
30.0%
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
1.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.82
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
40
1.33
PPG
1.20
33.3%
Win rate
27.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
37.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
35.0%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
20
1.00
PPG
0.85
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
55.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
1
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.67
Goals for per game
1.48
66.7%
Scoring rate
67.5%
33.3%
BTTS rate
55.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.25
0.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
45.0%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
3
History Matches
40
0.67
Goals Mean
1.48
0.47
Goals Std
1.41
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
67.5%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.5%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.67
Goals against per game
1.50
33.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
3
History Matches
40
0.67
Conceded Mean
1.50
0.94
Conceded Std
1.38
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.5%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.5%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
40
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
0.82
Goal Difference Std
1.90
0.00
Stability score
0.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
40
0
Lead Matches
9
—
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.74
1
Trailing Matches
14
0.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.21
Rest days
83.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
2
Normal Rest History Matches
24
0.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
0
Long Rest History Matches
15
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.14
—
Portability PPG Range
0.34
—
Portability Score
78.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO23.68
PPG0.13
GF-0.81
GA-0.83
PPG0.00
PPG0.15
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.07
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-37
Clean-sheet rate41.7%
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate70.0%
Failed-to-score rate60.0%
History Matches-37
Goals Mean-0.81
Goals Std-0.94
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.43
Scored 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Goals Mean-1.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches-37
Conceded Mean-0.83
Conceded Std-0.44
Clean-sheet rate41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches-37
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-1.09
Stability score-0.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-37
Lead Matches-9
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-37
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.83
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Long Rest History Matches-15
Current Team ELO23.68
Current Opponent ELO-23.68
Current ELO Difference47.37
Expected score0.07
History Matches-37
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance2.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Oriental U19

L
Benfica U192–1Oriental U197 Nov · away
Pick: Benfica U19 60% · hit
D
Oriental U191–1SC Farense U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Oriental U19 35% · missed
L
Alverca U192–1Oriental U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Alverca U19 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mafra U19

L
Mafra U191–2Torreense U197 Nov · home
Pick: Mafra U19 46% · missed
W
União Leiria U190–3Mafra U1924 Oct · away
Pick: União Leiria U19 40% · missed
L
Mafra U190–1Casa Pia U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Mafra U19 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Oriental U19 and Mafra U19 meet in Júniores U19 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Oriental U19 win 36.2%, draw 30.6%, Mafra U19 win 33.1%. The pick is Oriental U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.2%. Both teams to score: 43.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.