ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bremen Germany Bremen - 13 2026

OSC Bremerhaven vs Vatan Sport

OSC Bremerhaven Home · Elo 1,613
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vatan Sport Away · Elo 1,453
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: OSC Bremerhaven win
OSC Bremerhaven winPick
69.3%
Draw
17.4%
Vatan Sport win
13.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes68.5%
No31.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.582.4%
Under 2.517.6%

How much we know

OSC Bremerhaven history47 matches
Vatan Sport history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why OSC Bremerhaven are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • OSC Bremerhaven are rated 160 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,613 against 1,453. On rating alone OSC Bremerhaven would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • OSC Bremerhaven score more

    2.60 goals a game over 47 matches for OSC Bremerhaven, against 2.07 over 45 for Vatan Sport.

  • OSC Bremerhaven concede fewer

    OSC Bremerhaven concede 1.74 a game, Vatan Sport 3.09.

  • Vatan Sport games more often go over 2.5 goals

    77% of OSC Bremerhaven matches, against 96% for Vatan Sport. The model puts this match at 82% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
OSC Bremerhaven
Vatan Sport
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1612.9
ELO
1453.2
47
ELO · Matches
45
1612.9
Current Team ELO
1453.2
1453.2
Current Opponent ELO
1612.9
159.7
Current ELO Difference
-159.7
0.71
Expected score
0.29
47
History Matches
45
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.05
57.96
Overperformance
46.42
0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.40
3.20
Goals for per game
3.60
0.60
Goals against per game
3.40
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.80
PPG
1.40
3.90
Goals for per game
2.80
1.20
Goals against per game
2.60
90.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
2.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.85
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.86
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
45
1.87
PPG
1.11
57.4%
Win rate
33.3%
14.9%
Draw rate
11.1%
27.7%
Loss rate
55.6%
91.5%
Over 1.5 rate
97.8%
76.6%
Over 2.5 rate
95.6%
61.7%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
2.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
23
2.23
PPG
0.65
68.2%
Win rate
17.4%
18.2%
Draw rate
13.0%
13.6%
Loss rate
69.6%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
77.3%
Over 2.5 rate
95.7%
59.1%
Over 3.5 rate
82.6%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.59
22
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.60
Goals for per game
2.07
87.2%
Scoring rate
82.2%
61.7%
BTTS rate
77.8%
2.86
Goals for per game
2.04
90.9%
Scoring rate
87.0%
54.5%
BTTS rate
82.6%
4.33
Goals for per game
4.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
47
History Matches
45
2.60
Goals Mean
2.07
1.91
Goals Std
1.53
87.2%
Scored 1+ rate
82.2%
68.1%
Scored 2+ rate
62.2%
42.6%
Scored 3+ rate
35.6%
2.86
Venue Goals Mean
2.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.74
Goals against per game
3.09
70.2%
Conceding rate
95.6%
1.41
Goals against per game
3.35
54.5%
Conceding rate
95.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
47
History Matches
45
1.74
Conceded Mean
3.09
1.63
Conceded Std
1.95
48.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
77.8%
29.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
60.0%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
3.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
4.4%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
4.3%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
4.4%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
4.3%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
4.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
45
0.87
Result entropy
0.85
2.76
Goal Difference Std
2.96
12.84
Stability score
14.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
45
21
Lead Matches
16
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.77
12
Trailing Matches
20
25.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
1.13
First Half Goals For Mean
1.11
0.89
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.40
1.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.29
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
22
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.73
23
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
2.33
100.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
3.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.67
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.66
Portability PPG Std
0.60
1.62
Portability PPG Range
1.37
43.07
Portability Score
45.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO159.7
PPG0.76
GF0.53
GA-1.34
PPG0.67
PPG1.58
PPG1.60
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate25.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate41.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.53
Goals Std0.38
Scored 1+ rate5.0%
Scored 2+ rate5.9%
Scored 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.58
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-1.34
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate25.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.29
Conceded 3+ rate-0.30
Venue Conceded Mean-1.94
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score-1.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.76
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate10.7%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate5.0%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.80
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-2.27
Rest days0.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.27
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO159.7
Current Opponent ELO-159.7
Current ELO Difference319.4
Expected score0.43
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance11.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

OSC Bremerhaven

W
OSC Bremerhaven5–0Schwachhausen30 Oct · home
Pick: OSC Bremerhaven 82% · hit
W
Aumund-Vegesack0–3OSC Bremerhaven24 Oct · away
Pick: OSC Bremerhaven 74% · hit
W
OSC Bremerhaven4–0Eiche Horn16 Oct · home
Pick: OSC Bremerhaven 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vatan Sport

L
Vatan Sport3–4Aumund-Vegesack1 Nov · home
Pick: Vatan Sport 55% · missed
W
Eiche Horn2–3Vatan Sport25 Oct · away
Pick: Eiche Horn 45% · missed
L
Vatan Sport0–6Hemelingen17 Oct · home
Pick: Hemelingen 59% · hit
L
Vatan Sport2–3Grohn30 Aug · home
Pick: Vatan Sport 74% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

OSC Bremerhaven and Vatan Sport meet in Oberliga - Bremen on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: OSC Bremerhaven win 69.3%, draw 17.4%, Vatan Sport win 13.2%. The pick is OSC Bremerhaven win. Over 2.5 goals: 82.4%. Both teams to score: 68.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.