ScoreProb
WE League Japan Round 8 2026

Parceiro Nagano W vs Cerezo Osaka W

Parceiro Nagano W Home · Elo 1,360
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cerezo Osaka W Away · Elo 1,438
Nagano U Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cerezo Osaka W win
Parceiro Nagano W win
29.8%
Draw
25.1%
Cerezo Osaka W winPick
45.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%

How much we know

Parceiro Nagano W history34 matches
Cerezo Osaka W history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cerezo Osaka W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cerezo Osaka W are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,438 against 1,360. On rating alone Cerezo Osaka W would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Cerezo Osaka W score more

    0.79 goals a game over 34 matches for Parceiro Nagano W, against 0.94 over 34 for Cerezo Osaka W.

  • Cerezo Osaka W concede fewer

    Parceiro Nagano W concede 2.32 a game, Cerezo Osaka W 1.44.

  • Parceiro Nagano W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Parceiro Nagano W matches, against 53% for Cerezo Osaka W. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Parceiro Nagano W
Cerezo Osaka W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1359.7
ELO
1438.1
34
ELO · Matches
34
1359.7
Current Team ELO
1438.1
1438.1
Current Opponent ELO
1359.7
-78.34
Current ELO Difference
78.34
0.39
Expected score
0.61
34
History Matches
34
-0.20
Residual Mean
-0.09
37.23
Overperformance
44.34
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
2.80
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.20
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
3.00
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
34
0.53
PPG
0.91
11.8%
Win rate
20.6%
17.6%
Draw rate
29.4%
70.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
61.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.5%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
17
0.65
PPG
0.59
17.6%
Win rate
11.8%
11.8%
Draw rate
23.5%
70.6%
Loss rate
64.7%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
17
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.79
Goals for per game
0.94
55.9%
Scoring rate
64.7%
52.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.76
Goals for per game
0.59
52.9%
Scoring rate
52.9%
47.1%
BTTS rate
41.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
34
0.79
Goals Mean
0.94
0.83
Goals Std
0.87
55.9%
Scored 1+ rate
64.7%
20.6%
Scored 2+ rate
23.5%
2.9%
Scored 3+ rate
5.9%
0.76
Venue Goals Mean
0.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.32
Goals against per game
1.44
94.1%
Conceding rate
67.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.71
94.1%
Conceding rate
70.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
34
2.32
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.47
Conceded Std
1.33
67.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.1%
35.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.5%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
44.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
44.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
34
0.73
Result entropy
0.94
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.61
26.84
Stability score
6.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
34
5
Lead Matches
7
40.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.60
Lead Points Retention
1.00
17
Trailing Matches
13
11.8%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.29
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
1.03
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.83
Rest days
75.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
13
Normal Rest History Matches
16
0.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
20
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.27
Portability PPG Range
0.14
78.57
Portability Score
88.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-78.34
PPG-0.38
GF-0.15
GA0.88
PPG-1.00
PPG0.06
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate8.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.88
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Conceded 2+ rate23.5%
Conceded 3+ rate11.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.21
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score20.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.60
Lead Points Retention-0.40
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.53
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.14
Portability Score-9.43
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO-78.34
Current Opponent ELO78.34
Current ELO Difference-156.7
Expected score-0.22
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Parceiro Nagano W

L
Parceiro Nagano W0–1Omiya Ardija Ventus W28 Oct · home
Pick: Omiya Ardija Ventus W 42% · hit
L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W1–0Parceiro Nagano W25 Oct · away
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 59% · hit
D
Albirex Niigata W0–0Parceiro Nagano W17 Oct · away
Pick: Albirex Niigata W 67% · missed
L
Parceiro Nagano W1–4Tokyo Verdy Beleza W29 Aug · home
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cerezo Osaka W

W
Cerezo Osaka W4–0Elfen Saitama W1 Nov · home
Pick: Cerezo Osaka W 50% · hit
W
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W1–2Cerezo Osaka W28 Oct · away
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 65% · missed
W
Omiya Ardija Ventus W1–2Cerezo Osaka W25 Oct · away
Pick: Omiya Ardija Ventus W 41% · missed
D
Cerezo Osaka W2–2Nojima Stella W18 Oct · home
Pick: Nojima Stella W 37% · missed
W
JEF United W1–3Cerezo Osaka W30 Aug · away
Pick: JEF United W 40% · missed

About this match

Parceiro Nagano W and Cerezo Osaka W meet in WE League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Nagano U Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Parceiro Nagano W win 29.8%, draw 25.1%, Cerezo Osaka W win 45.1%. The pick is Cerezo Osaka W win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.