ScoreProb
WE League Japan Round 8 2026

Vegalta Sendai W vs Urawa Reds W

Vegalta Sendai W Home · Elo 1,489
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Urawa Reds W Away · Elo 1,581
Yurtec Stadium Sendai Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Urawa Reds W win
Vegalta Sendai W win
30.0%
Draw
32.3%
Urawa Reds W winPick
37.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.2%
No56.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.6%
Under 2.559.4%

How much we know

Vegalta Sendai W history34 matches
Urawa Reds W history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Urawa Reds W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Urawa Reds W are rated 92 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,581 against 1,489. On rating alone Urawa Reds W would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Urawa Reds W score far more

    0.91 goals a game over 34 matches for Vegalta Sendai W, against 1.80 over 35 for Urawa Reds W.

  • Urawa Reds W concede fewer

    Vegalta Sendai W concede 1.44 a game, Urawa Reds W 0.66.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Vegalta Sendai W matches, against 46% for Urawa Reds W. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vegalta Sendai W
Urawa Reds W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1489.0
ELO
1581.2
34
ELO · Matches
35
1489.0
Current Team ELO
1581.2
1581.2
Current Opponent ELO
1489.0
-92.18
Current ELO Difference
92.18
0.37
Expected score
0.63
34
History Matches
35
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.11
49.05
Overperformance
57.08
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.80
0.90
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
35
1.18
PPG
2.00
29.4%
Win rate
60.0%
29.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
41.2%
Loss rate
20.0%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
18
1.12
PPG
2.00
23.5%
Win rate
61.1%
41.2%
Draw rate
16.7%
35.3%
Loss rate
22.2%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
17
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.91
Goals for per game
1.80
55.9%
Scoring rate
80.0%
44.1%
BTTS rate
31.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.61
52.9%
Scoring rate
83.3%
52.9%
BTTS rate
27.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
34
History Matches
35
0.91
Goals Mean
1.80
0.95
Goals Std
1.49
55.9%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
29.4%
Scored 2+ rate
48.6%
5.9%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
0.66
67.6%
Conceding rate
42.9%
1.29
Goals against per game
0.72
70.6%
Conceding rate
38.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
34
History Matches
35
1.44
Conceded Mean
0.66
1.56
Conceded Std
0.86
38.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
17.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.9%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
0.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
44.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
61.1%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
44.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
61.1%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
35
0.99
Result entropy
0.86
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.84
1.22
Stability score
13.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
35
5
Lead Matches
19
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
94.7%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.96
14
Trailing Matches
4
14.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.26
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.23
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.83
Rest days
76.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.11
20
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.00
1.27
Portability PPG Range
0.00
44.00
Portability Score
100.0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-92.18
PPG-0.82
GF-0.89
GA0.78
PPG0.00
PPG-0.88
PPG0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate24.1%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Failed-to-score rate30.4%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.89
Goals Std-0.54
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.73
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.78
Conceded Std0.70
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate14.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score-12.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.91
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.64
Portability PPG Range1.27
Portability Score-56.00
Rest days-0.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Current Team ELO-92.18
Current Opponent ELO92.18
Current ELO Difference-184.4
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-8.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vegalta Sendai W

W
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W1–2Vegalta Sendai W1 Nov · away
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 39% · missed
D
Vegalta Sendai W0–0Nojima Stella W24 Oct · home
Pick: Vegalta Sendai W 40% · missed
W
Elfen Saitama W1–2Vegalta Sendai W21 Oct · away
Pick: Vegalta Sendai W 42% · hit
L
Vegalta Sendai W3–4INAC Kobe Leonessa W18 Oct · home
Pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 38% · hit
L
Albirex Niigata W3–2Vegalta Sendai W30 Aug · away
Pick: Albirex Niigata W 43% · hit

Urawa Reds W

W
Albirex Niigata W0–2Urawa Reds W1 Nov · away
Pick: Urawa Reds W 39% · hit
W
Urawa Reds W2–0Sanfrecce Hiroshima W28 Oct · home
Pick: Urawa Reds W 57% · hit
W
Urawa Reds W2–0INAC Kobe Leonessa W24 Oct · home
Pick: Urawa Reds W 37% · hit
L
JEF United W2–1Urawa Reds W18 Oct · away
Pick: Urawa Reds W 56% · missed
W
Urawa Reds W5–1Nojima Stella W30 Aug · home
Pick: Urawa Reds W 53% · hit

About this match

Vegalta Sendai W and Urawa Reds W meet in WE League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Yurtec Stadium Sendai. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Vegalta Sendai W win 30.0%, draw 32.3%, Urawa Reds W win 37.8%. The pick is Urawa Reds W win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.6%. Both teams to score: 43.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.