ScoreProb
Ligue 1 France Round 10 2026

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes

Paris Saint Germain Home · Elo 1,698
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Estac Troyes Away · Elo 1,620
Parc des Princes, Paris Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Paris Saint Germain win
Paris Saint Germain winPick
46.8%
Draw
30.3%
Estac Troyes win
22.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.1%
Under 2.539.9%

How much we know

Paris Saint Germain history97 matches
Estac Troyes history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Paris Saint Germain are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Paris Saint Germain are rated 79 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,698 against 1,620. On rating alone Paris Saint Germain would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Paris Saint Germain score more

    2.43 goals a game over 97 matches for Paris Saint Germain, against 1.70 over 64 for Estac Troyes.

  • Estac Troyes concede fewer

    Paris Saint Germain concede 1.00 a game, Estac Troyes 0.89.

  • Paris Saint Germain games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Paris Saint Germain matches, against 50% for Estac Troyes. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Paris Saint Germain
Estac Troyes@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1698.2
ELO
1619.5
97
ELO · Matches
64
1698.2
Current Team ELO
1619.5
1619.5
Current Opponent ELO
1698.2
78.71
Current ELO Difference
-78.71
0.61
Expected score
0.39
97
History Matches
64
0.10
Residual Mean
0.09
58.36
Overperformance
57.18
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.10
1.10
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.64
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
97
Matches
64
2.16
PPG
1.89
67.0%
Win rate
56.3%
15.5%
Draw rate
20.3%
17.5%
Loss rate
23.4%
82.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
66.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
43.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.6%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
50
Matches
31
2.22
PPG
1.77
68.0%
Win rate
51.6%
18.0%
Draw rate
22.6%
14.0%
Loss rate
25.8%
86.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.6%
48.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
50
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.43
Goals for per game
1.70
90.7%
Scoring rate
78.1%
51.5%
BTTS rate
45.3%
2.54
Goals for per game
1.61
94.0%
Scoring rate
77.4%
52.0%
BTTS rate
45.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
97
History Matches
64
2.43
Goals Mean
1.70
1.70
Goals Std
1.38
90.7%
Scored 1+ rate
78.1%
63.9%
Scored 2+ rate
51.6%
43.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
2.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
0.89
59.8%
Conceding rate
57.8%
0.94
Goals against per game
0.84
58.0%
Conceding rate
58.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
97
History Matches
64
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.89
1.03
Conceded Std
0.95
28.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.4%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
0.84
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
42.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.9%
6.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
40.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
42.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.9%
6.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
40.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
97
History Matches
64
0.78
Result entropy
0.90
2.01
Goal Difference Std
1.60
21.53
Stability score
10.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
97
Eligible Matches
64
50
Lead Matches
22
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
95.5%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.95
17
Trailing Matches
10
41.2%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
30.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
97
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
1.08
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
1.35
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.43
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
70
Normal Rest History Matches
37
2.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
12
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
14
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.94
Portability PPG Range
1.07
61.81
Portability Score
55.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
97
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO78.71
PPG0.27
GF0.73
GA0.11
PPG0.00
PPG0.45
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches33
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches33
Goals Mean0.73
Goals Std0.32
Scored 1+ rate12.6%
Scored 2+ rate12.4%
Scored 3+ rate18.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.93
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.94
History Matches33
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate4.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches33
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score11.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches33
Lead Matches28
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches33
First Half Goals For Mean0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count7
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score6.61
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Short Rest Points Per Match0.93
Normal Rest History Matches33
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.41
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO78.71
Current Opponent ELO-78.71
Current ELO Difference157.4
Expected score0.22
History Matches33
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Paris Saint Germain

W
Villarreal0–6Paris Saint Germain3 Nov · away
Pick: Paris Saint Germain 42% · hit
W
Le Havre1–5Paris Saint Germain30 Oct · away
Pick: Paris Saint Germain 52% · hit
W
Paris Saint Germain4–2Barcelona20 Oct · home
Pick: Paris Saint Germain 37% · hit
W
Strasbourg1–3Paris Saint Germain17 Oct · away
Pick: Paris Saint Germain 68% · hit
W
Manchester City2–4Paris Saint Germain14 Oct · away
Pick: Paris Saint Germain 42% · hit

Estac Troyes

W
Estac Troyes2–0Le Mans31 Oct · home
Pick: Estac Troyes 40% · hit
L
Estac Troyes1–3Lens17 Oct · home
Pick: Lens 45% · hit
W
Lorient1–2Estac Troyes29 Aug · away
Pick: Lorient 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes meet in Ligue 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Parc des Princes, Paris. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Paris Saint Germain win 46.8%, draw 30.3%, Estac Troyes win 22.9%. The pick is Paris Saint Germain win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.1%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.