ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Ost Austria Ost - 15 2026

Parndorf vs Wienerberg

Parndorf Home · Elo 1,648
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wienerberg Away · Elo 1,533
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Parndorf win
Parndorf winPick
75.3%
Draw
13.6%
Wienerberg win
11.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%
No43.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.4%
Under 2.525.6%

How much we know

Parndorf history54 matches
Wienerberg history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (75.3%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Parndorf are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Parndorf are rated 114 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,648 against 1,533. On rating alone Parndorf would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Parndorf score more

    2.22 goals a game over 54 matches for Parndorf, against 1.96 over 45 for Wienerberg.

  • Parndorf concede fewer

    Parndorf concede 1.09 a game, Wienerberg 1.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Parndorf matches, against 69% for Wienerberg. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Parndorf
Wienerberg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1647.7
ELO
1533.3
54
ELO · Matches
45
1647.7
Current Team ELO
1533.3
1533.3
Current Opponent ELO
1647.7
114.5
Current ELO Difference
-114.5
0.66
Expected score
0.34
54
History Matches
45
0.12
Residual Mean
0.04
59.08
Overperformance
52.63
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.00
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
4.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.10
2.70
Goals for per game
1.90
1.10
Goals against per game
2.40
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.80
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
45
2.07
PPG
1.64
61.1%
Win rate
48.9%
24.1%
Draw rate
17.8%
14.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
68.9%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
22
2.25
PPG
1.59
70.8%
Win rate
45.5%
12.5%
Draw rate
22.7%
16.7%
Loss rate
31.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.57
24
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.22
Goals for per game
1.96
83.3%
Scoring rate
77.8%
55.6%
BTTS rate
51.1%
2.08
Goals for per game
2.09
75.0%
Scoring rate
86.4%
37.5%
BTTS rate
63.6%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
45
2.22
Goals Mean
1.96
1.74
Goals Std
1.55
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
68.5%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
31.5%
Scored 3+ rate
35.6%
2.08
Venue Goals Mean
2.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.09
Goals against per game
1.67
64.8%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.86
54.2%
Conceding rate
68.2%
0.75
Goals against per game
4.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
45
1.09
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.24
Conceded Std
1.81
20.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.7%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.4%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
45
0.84
Result entropy
0.93
2.28
Goal Difference Std
2.49
15.65
Stability score
6.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
45
21
Lead Matches
19
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.93
13
Trailing Matches
13
46.2%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
30.8%
Trailing Win Rate
23.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.04
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
24
2.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
28
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.97
1.71
Portability PPG Range
2.59
45.07
Portability Score
33.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO114.5
PPG0.43
GF0.27
GA-0.57
PPG2.00
PPG0.66
PPG2.20
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate14.0%
Failed-to-score rate11.4%
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate5.6%
Scored 2+ rate8.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.57
Conceded Std-0.58
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.99
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.66
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score8.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.48
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate15.4%
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.36
Portability PPG Range-0.88
Portability Score11.12
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.65
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.31
Current Team ELO114.5
Current Opponent ELO-114.5
Current ELO Difference228.9
Expected score0.32
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Parndorf

W
Parndorf5–0Scheiblingkirchen23 Oct · home
Pick: Parndorf 67% · hit
L
Wiener Viktoria1–0Parndorf17 Oct · away
Pick: Parndorf 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wienerberg

L
Wienerberg0–3Krems / Rehberg31 Oct · home
Pick: Krems / Rehberg 43% · hit
L
Donau8–1Wienerberg24 Oct · away
Pick: Donau 58% · hit
L
Wienerberg0–3Leobendorf17 Oct · home
Pick: Leobendorf 45% · hit
L
Wienerberg0–2Favoritner AC29 Aug · home
Pick: Favoritner AC 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Parndorf and Wienerberg meet in Regionalliga - Ost on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Parndorf win 75.3%, draw 13.6%, Wienerberg win 11.1%. The pick is Parndorf win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.4%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.