ScoreProb
Super Liga Moldova Round 18 2026

Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol

Petrocub Home · Elo 1,608
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sheriff Tiraspol Away · Elo 1,627
Stadionul Municipal, Hincesti Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Petrocub win
Petrocub winPick
36.4%
Draw
27.4%
Sheriff Tiraspol win
36.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.7%
No47.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%

How much we know

Petrocub history70 matches
Sheriff Tiraspol history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Petrocub are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,608 against 1,627. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.91 goals a game over 70 matches for Petrocub, against 1.87 over 75 for Sheriff Tiraspol.

  • Sheriff Tiraspol concede fewer

    Petrocub concede 1.07 a game, Sheriff Tiraspol 0.89.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Petrocub matches, against 52% for Sheriff Tiraspol. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Petrocub
Sheriff Tiraspol@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1607.8
ELO
1627.2
70
ELO · Matches
75
1607.8
Current Team ELO
1627.2
1627.2
Current Opponent ELO
1607.8
-19.34
Current ELO Difference
19.34
0.47
Expected score
0.53
70
History Matches
75
0.08
Residual Mean
0.09
55.86
Overperformance
56.95
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.60
2.10
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.83
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.82
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
75
1.80
PPG
1.95
52.9%
Win rate
58.7%
21.4%
Draw rate
18.7%
25.7%
Loss rate
22.7%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.3%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
25.7%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
2.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
35
2.31
PPG
1.66
71.4%
Win rate
48.6%
17.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
11.4%
Loss rate
31.4%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
62.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
25.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
2.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
35
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.91
Goals for per game
1.87
80.0%
Scoring rate
78.7%
48.6%
BTTS rate
38.7%
2.37
Goals for per game
1.43
88.6%
Scoring rate
71.4%
51.4%
BTTS rate
45.7%
1.78
Goals for per game
2.33
77.8%
Scoring rate
77.8%
66.7%
BTTS rate
44.4%
70
History Matches
75
1.91
Goals Mean
1.87
2.10
Goals Std
1.72
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
51.4%
Scored 2+ rate
50.7%
24.3%
Scored 3+ rate
26.7%
2.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
0.89
62.9%
Conceding rate
50.7%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.11
57.1%
Conceding rate
65.7%
1.11
Goals against per game
0.67
77.8%
Conceding rate
44.4%
70
History Matches
75
1.07
Conceded Mean
0.89
1.23
Conceded Std
1.21
22.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
49.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
49.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
49.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
75
0.93
Result entropy
0.88
2.63
Goal Difference Std
2.29
7.49
Stability score
12.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
75
34
Lead Matches
33
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.93
15
Trailing Matches
12
13.3%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
75.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
18
1.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
46
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
16
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
9
Matches
9
1.56
PPG
2.33
44.4%
Win rate
66.7%
22.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
9
Current Competition Matches
9
1.56
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
10
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.75
1.60
Portability PPG Range
2.25
49.05
Portability Score
40.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-19.34
PPG-0.15
GF0.05
GA0.18
PPG-0.78
PPG0.66
PPG0.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.38
Scored 1+ rate1.3%
Scored 2+ rate0.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.94
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate2.9%
Conceded 3+ rate2.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score-4.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.93
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate5.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.78
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.65
Portability Score8.96
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-11
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO-19.34
Current Opponent ELO19.34
Current ELO Difference-38.68
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Petrocub

W
CSF Bălți0–6Petrocub31 Oct · away
Pick: Petrocub 64% · hit
W
Petrocub8–2Edineţ27 Oct · home
Pick: Petrocub 60% · hit
W
Petrocub2–1Milsami Orhei24 Oct · home
Pick: Petrocub 56% · hit
D
Petrocub0–0Dacia-Buiucani17 Oct · home
Pick: Petrocub 58% · missed
W
Petrocub3–0CSF Bălți30 Aug · home
Pick: Petrocub 79% · hit

Sheriff Tiraspol

D
Sheriff Tiraspol1–1Zimbru31 Oct · home
Pick: Sheriff Tiraspol 48% · missed
W
Sheriff Tiraspol11–0Congaz28 Oct · home
Pick: Sheriff Tiraspol 70% · hit
W
Politehnica UTM0–2Sheriff Tiraspol24 Oct · away
Pick: Sheriff Tiraspol 61% · hit
W
Sheriff Tiraspol2–0Sireți17 Oct · home
Pick: Sheriff Tiraspol 65% · hit
L
Zimbru2–1Sheriff Tiraspol29 Aug · away
Pick: Zimbru 45% · hit

About this match

Petrocub and Sheriff Tiraspol meet in Super Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadionul Municipal, Hincesti. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Petrocub win 36.4%, draw 27.4%, Sheriff Tiraspol win 36.1%. The pick is Petrocub win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.8%. Both teams to score: 52.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.