ScoreProb
Super Liga Moldova Round 18 2026

Zimbru vs Sireți

Zimbru Home · Elo 1,619
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sireți Away · Elo 1,527
Stadionul Zimbru Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zimbru win
Zimbru winPick
68.8%
Draw
14.2%
Sireți win
17.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%
No43.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.5%
Under 2.530.5%

How much we know

Zimbru history72 matches
Sireți history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Zimbru are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zimbru are rated 93 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,619 against 1,527. On rating alone Zimbru would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.22 goals a game over 72 matches for Zimbru, against 2.12 over 42 for Sireți.

  • Zimbru concede fewer

    Zimbru concede 1.11 a game, Sireți 1.50.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Zimbru matches, against 57% for Sireți. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zimbru
Sireți@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1619.4
ELO
1526.8
72
ELO · Matches
42
1619.4
Current Team ELO
1526.8
1526.8
Current Opponent ELO
1619.4
92.61
Current ELO Difference
-92.61
0.63
Expected score
0.37
72
History Matches
42
0.08
Residual Mean
0.04
56.14
Overperformance
52.38
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.70
2.30
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
42
1.81
PPG
1.64
52.8%
Win rate
45.2%
22.2%
Draw rate
28.6%
25.0%
Loss rate
26.2%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
47.6%
2.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
20
2.06
PPG
1.25
60.0%
Win rate
35.0%
25.7%
Draw rate
20.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
45.0%
97.1%
Over 1.5 rate
95.0%
65.7%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
48.6%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.46
35
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.22
Goals for per game
2.12
83.3%
Scoring rate
76.2%
51.4%
BTTS rate
59.5%
2.74
Goals for per game
1.60
94.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
65.7%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.33
Goals for per game
0.67
88.9%
Scoring rate
55.6%
44.4%
BTTS rate
55.6%
72
History Matches
42
2.22
Goals Mean
2.12
1.89
Goals Std
2.11
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.2%
56.9%
Scored 2+ rate
47.6%
40.3%
Scored 3+ rate
31.0%
2.74
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.50
62.5%
Conceding rate
73.8%
1.09
Goals against per game
2.00
68.6%
Conceding rate
85.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.44
44.4%
Conceding rate
77.8%
72
History Matches
42
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.10
Conceded Std
1.40
36.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.4%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
5.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
5.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
42
0.93
Result entropy
0.97
2.40
Goal Difference Std
2.52
7.33
Stability score
2.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
41
30
Lead Matches
15
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
1.00
17
Trailing Matches
11
35.3%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.31
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
75.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
45
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
19
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.84
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
9
Matches
9
1.89
PPG
0.67
55.6%
Win rate
0.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
66.7%
22.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.23
9
Current Competition Matches
9
1.89
Current Competition PPG
0.67
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.78
9
Competition Season Count
6
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.56
2.17
Portability PPG Range
1.47
42.50
Portability Score
47.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO92.61
PPG0.16
GF0.10
GA-0.39
PPG1.22
PPG0.81
PPG0.80
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches30
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate16.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches30
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate7.1%
Scored 2+ rate9.3%
Scored 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.61
History Matches30
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.91
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches30
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score4.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.88
Eligible Matches29
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate8.0%
Trailing Win Rate8.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches29
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.11
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.70
Portability Score-4.78
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.17
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO92.61
Current Opponent ELO-92.61
Current ELO Difference185.2
Expected score0.26
History Matches30
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zimbru

D
Sheriff Tiraspol1–1Zimbru31 Oct · away
Pick: Sheriff Tiraspol 48% · missed
W
Zimbru6–0Oguzsport28 Oct · home
Pick: Zimbru 73% · hit
W
Zimbru4–0CSF Bălți25 Oct · home
Pick: Zimbru 81% · hit
D
Milsami Orhei1–1Zimbru18 Oct · away
Pick: Zimbru 49% · missed
W
Zimbru2–1Sheriff Tiraspol29 Aug · home
Pick: Zimbru 45% · hit

Sireți

W
Sireți2–1Politehnica UTM1 Nov · home
Pick: Sireți 49% · hit
W
Sireți8–0Victoria Bardar28 Oct · home
Pick: Sireți 63% · hit
L
Dacia-Buiucani3–1Sireți24 Oct · away
Pick: Dacia-Buiucani 53% · hit
L
Sheriff Tiraspol2–0Sireți17 Oct · away
Pick: Sheriff Tiraspol 65% · hit
D
Politehnica UTM0–0Sireți29 Aug · away
Pick: Politehnica UTM 52% · missed

About this match

Zimbru and Sireți meet in Super Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadionul Zimbru. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Zimbru win 68.8%, draw 14.2%, Sireți win 17.0%. The pick is Zimbru win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.5%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.