ScoreProb
Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Pollok vs Caledonian Braves

Pollok Home · Elo 1,530
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Caledonian Braves Away · Elo 1,575
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pollok win
Pollok winPick
45.9%
Draw
23.4%
Caledonian Braves win
30.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.7%
Under 2.536.3%

How much we know

Pollok history9 matches
Caledonian Braves history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Pollok are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Caledonian Braves are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,575 against 1,530. On rating alone Caledonian Braves would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Caledonian Braves score more

    1.78 goals a game over 9 matches for Pollok, against 2.18 over 50 for Caledonian Braves.

  • Pollok concede fewer

    Pollok concede 1.22 a game, Caledonian Braves 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Pollok matches, against 66% for Caledonian Braves. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pollok
Caledonian Braves
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.4
ELO
1575.1
9
ELO · Matches
50
1530.4
Current Team ELO
1575.1
1575.1
Current Opponent ELO
1530.4
-44.66
Current ELO Difference
44.66
0.44
Expected score
0.56
9
History Matches
50
0.16
Residual Mean
0.07
54.86
Overperformance
54.74
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.00
2.60
Goals for per game
3.00
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
9
Matches
10
1.89
PPG
1.90
1.78
Goals for per game
2.70
1.22
Goals against per game
1.70
55.6%
Win rate
60.0%
1.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.23
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.13
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
9
Matches
50
1.89
PPG
1.80
55.6%
Win rate
54.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
18.0%
22.2%
Loss rate
28.0%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.0%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
46.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
27
2.50
PPG
1.63
75.0%
Win rate
48.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
18.5%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
4
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.78
Goals for per game
2.18
77.8%
Scoring rate
86.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
58.0%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.70
75.0%
Scoring rate
81.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
51.9%
2.60
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
60.0%
BTTS rate
83.3%
9
History Matches
50
1.78
Goals Mean
2.18
1.23
Goals Std
1.47
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
86.0%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
62.0%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
44.0%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.38
66.7%
Conceding rate
72.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Conceding rate
70.4%
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
9
History Matches
50
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.13
Conceded Std
1.23
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.0%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
9
History Matches
50
0.91
Result entropy
0.91
1.89
Goal Difference Std
2.03
9.43
Stability score
9.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
8
Eligible Matches
49
5
Lead Matches
22
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
95.5%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.95
1
Trailing Matches
11
0.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
8
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
1.25
First Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.84
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
29
2.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
3
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
2.60
PPG
2.17
80.0%
Win rate
66.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
83.3%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
5
Current Competition Matches
6
2.60
Current Competition PPG
2.17
1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.25
1.27
Portability PPG Range
0.61
44.12
Portability Score
66.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
9
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-44.66
PPG0.09
GF-0.40
GA-0.16
PPG0.43
PPG0.87
PPG0.60
PPG-0.01
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-41
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate8.2%
History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate20.4%
Failed-to-score rate6.5%
History Matches-41
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate4.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.51
History Matches-41
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches-41
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score0.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.16
Eligible Matches-41
Lead Matches-17
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-41
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.80
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.38
Portability PPG Range0.66
Portability Score-22.38
Rest days2.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.88
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Current Team ELO-44.66
Current Opponent ELO44.66
Current ELO Difference-89.32
Expected score-0.13
History Matches-41
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pollok

L
Threave Rovers6–1Pollok31 Oct · away
Pick: Pollok 53% · missed
W
Pollok2–1Beith29 Aug · home
Pick: Pollok 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Caledonian Braves

D
Caledonian Braves1–1Albion Rovers27 Oct · home
Pick: Caledonian Braves 66% · missed
W
Celtic II0–1Caledonian Braves16 Oct · away
Pick: Celtic II 56% · missed
W
Caledonian Braves5–2Kilwinning Rangers29 Aug · home
Pick: Caledonian Braves 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pollok and Caledonian Braves meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Pollok win 45.9%, draw 23.4%, Caledonian Braves win 30.7%. The pick is Pollok win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.7%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.