ScoreProb
Primera B Colombia Round 3 2026

Popayan vs Envigado

Popayan Home · Elo 1,445
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Envigado Away · Elo 1,512
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Envigado win
Popayan win
33.6%
Draw
27.7%
Envigado winPick
38.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.8%
Under 2.555.2%

How much we know

Popayan history59 matches
Envigado history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 14 h ahead
    4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Envigado are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Envigado are rated 66 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,512 against 1,445. On rating alone Envigado would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.00 goals a game over 59 matches for Popayan, against 1.00 over 75 for Envigado.

  • Defences are close

    Popayan concede 1.17 a game, Envigado 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    37% of Popayan matches, against 36% for Envigado. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Popayan
Envigado
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1445.3
ELO
1511.6
59
ELO · Matches
75
1445.3
Current Team ELO
1511.6
1511.6
Current Opponent ELO
1445.3
-66.34
Current ELO Difference
66.34
0.41
Expected score
0.59
59
History Matches
75
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
46.78
Overperformance
50.84
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
75
1.03
PPG
1.27
25.4%
Win rate
33.3%
27.1%
Draw rate
26.7%
47.5%
Loss rate
40.0%
59.3%
Over 1.5 rate
61.3%
37.3%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
16.9%
Over 3.5 rate
10.7%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
37
1.10
PPG
1.24
26.7%
Win rate
35.1%
30.0%
Draw rate
18.9%
43.3%
Loss rate
45.9%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
56.8%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
43.2%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.2%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
30
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
62.7%
Scoring rate
64.0%
44.1%
BTTS rate
45.3%
0.97
Goals for per game
1.08
63.3%
Scoring rate
59.5%
46.7%
BTTS rate
43.2%
0.94
Goals for per game
1.35
66.7%
Scoring rate
84.6%
55.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
59
History Matches
75
1.00
Goals Mean
1.00
0.99
Goals Std
0.95
62.7%
Scored 1+ rate
64.0%
27.1%
Scored 2+ rate
26.7%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
9.3%
0.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.11
74.6%
Conceding rate
70.7%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.16
73.3%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.88
77.8%
Conceding rate
53.8%
59
History Matches
75
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.11
0.98
Conceded Std
1.13
32.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.3%
6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.0%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
37.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
37.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
75
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.45
3.90
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
74
13
Lead Matches
18
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.83
15
Trailing Matches
15
20.0%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.02
Rest days
74.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
29
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
26
0.89
PPG
1.73
16.7%
Win rate
50.0%
38.9%
Draw rate
23.1%
44.4%
Loss rate
26.9%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
1.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
18
Current Competition Matches
26
0.89
Current Competition PPG
1.73
-0.39
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.46
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.87
59.48
Portability Score
55.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-66.34
PPG-0.23
GF0.00
GA0.06
PPG-0.84
PPG-0.14
PPG0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-16
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate0.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate6.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.55
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score2.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches-8
Current Competition PPG-0.84
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.85
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score3.55
Rest days-1.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Current Team ELO-66.34
Current Opponent ELO66.34
Current ELO Difference-132.7
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Popayan

W
Ind. Yumbo2–4Popayan2 Nov · away
Pick: Ind. Yumbo 44% · missed
W
Popayan2–1Internacional Palmira24 Oct · home
Pick: Internacional Palmira 40% · missed
L
Ind. Yumbo3–0Popayan20 Oct · away
Pick: Ind. Yumbo 44% · hit
L
Popayan0–1Depor FC16 Oct · home
Pick: Popayan 59% · missed
L
Orsomarso1–0Popayan12 Oct · away
Pick: Orsomarso 44% · hit

Envigado

D
Union Magdalena1–1Envigado2 Nov · away
Pick: Union Magdalena 39% · missed
W
Patriotas0–2Envigado24 Oct · away
Pick: Envigado 40% · hit
D
Bogota FC3–3Envigado5 Oct · away
Pick: Envigado 40% · missed
L
Envigado0–1Union Magdalena1 Sep · home
Pick: Envigado 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Popayan and Envigado meet in Primera B on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC: Popayan win 33.6%, draw 27.7%, Envigado win 38.6%. The pick is Envigado win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.8%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.