ScoreProb
Premier League Ghana Round 10 2026

Port City vs Basake Holy Stars

Port City Home · Elo 1,483
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Basake Holy Stars Away · Elo 1,474
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Port City win
Port City winPick
38.9%
Draw
26.1%
Basake Holy Stars win
35.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.5%
No53.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.9%
Under 2.553.1%

How much we know

Port City history37 matches
Basake Holy Stars history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Port City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,483 against 1,474. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Port City score far more

    1.41 goals a game over 37 matches for Port City, against 0.74 over 50 for Basake Holy Stars.

  • Defences are close

    Port City concede 1.27 a game, Basake Holy Stars 1.18.

  • Port City games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Port City matches, against 34% for Basake Holy Stars. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 12 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Port City
Basake Holy Stars@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.4
ELO
1474.3
37
ELO · Matches
50
1483.4
Current Team ELO
1474.3
1474.3
Current Opponent ELO
1483.4
9.06
Current ELO Difference
-9.06
0.51
Expected score
0.49
37
History Matches
50
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.20
Overperformance
48.02
-0.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.10
1.00
Goals for per game
0.70
2.60
Goals against per game
1.20
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
50
1.51
PPG
1.14
43.2%
Win rate
30.0%
21.6%
Draw rate
24.0%
35.1%
Loss rate
46.0%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
62.0%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
34.0%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
10.0%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
26
1.56
PPG
0.27
44.4%
Win rate
0.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
26.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
73.1%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.04
18
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.41
Goals for per game
0.74
75.7%
Scoring rate
54.0%
48.6%
BTTS rate
30.0%
1.56
Goals for per game
0.38
83.3%
Scoring rate
34.6%
61.1%
BTTS rate
34.6%
37
History Matches
50
1.41
Goals Mean
0.74
1.20
Goals Std
0.77
75.7%
Scored 1+ rate
54.0%
37.8%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
18.9%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
0.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.27
Goals against per game
1.18
64.9%
Conceding rate
58.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.77
66.7%
Conceding rate
80.8%
37
History Matches
50
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.22
Conceded Std
1.18
37.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.0%
18.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.0%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
46.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
65.4%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
46.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
65.4%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
50
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.49
3.41
Stability score
3.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
49
6
Lead Matches
10
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.83
10
Trailing Matches
16
10.0%
Non-loss rate
6.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
119.7
Rest days
143.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
9
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.82
Portability PPG Std
0.22
1.63
Portability PPG Range
0.44
38.02
Portability Score
69.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO9.06
PPG0.37
GF0.67
GA0.09
PPG1.29
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.49
History Matches-13
Goals Mean0.67
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate21.7%
Scored 2+ rate17.8%
Scored 3+ rate18.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate2.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.48
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score-0.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.14
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate3.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.60
Portability PPG Range1.19
Portability Score-31.60
Rest days-23.42
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.20
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.95
Current Team ELO9.06
Current Opponent ELO-9.06
Current ELO Difference18.12
Expected score0.03
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Port City

W
Port City3–1Bechem United4 Oct · home
Pick: Port City 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Basake Holy Stars

W
Basake Holy Stars1–0Berekum Chelsea4 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Port City and Basake Holy Stars meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Port City win 38.9%, draw 26.1%, Basake Holy Stars win 35.0%. The pick is Port City win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.9%. Both teams to score: 46.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.