ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain Group 10 - 10 2026

Portuense vs Cádiz II

Portuense Home · Elo 1,500
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cádiz II Away · Elo 1,509
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Portuense win
31.0%
DrawPick
39.0%
Cádiz II win
30.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.0%
No57.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.535.5%
Under 2.564.5%

How much we know

Portuense history1 match
Cádiz II history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,500 against 1,509. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Cádiz II score far more

    0.00 goals a game over 1 matches for Portuense, against 1.29 over 48 for Cádiz II.

  • Portuense concede fewer

    Portuense concede 0.00 a game, Cádiz II 1.17.

  • Cádiz II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    0% of Portuense matches, against 35% for Cádiz II. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Portuense
Cádiz II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.9
ELO
1509.2
1
ELO · Matches
48
1499.9
Current Team ELO
1509.2
1509.2
Current Opponent ELO
1499.9
-9.33
Current ELO Difference
9.33
0.49
Expected score
0.51
1
History Matches
48
0.09
Residual Mean
0.01
50.41
Overperformance
50.67
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
1
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.00
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.60
0.00
Goals for per game
1.70
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.95
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
1
Matches
48
1.00
PPG
1.38
0.0%
Win rate
35.4%
100.0%
Draw rate
31.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
35.4%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
24
1.00
PPG
1.25
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
100.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
1
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.00
Goals for per game
1.29
0.0%
Scoring rate
68.8%
0.0%
BTTS rate
43.8%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.21
0.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1
History Matches
48
0.00
Goals Mean
1.29
—
Goals Std
1.49
0.0%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.4%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.00
Goals against per game
1.17
0.0%
Conceding rate
68.8%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.33
0.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1
History Matches
48
0.00
Conceded Mean
1.17
—
Conceded Std
1.11
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
1
History Matches
48
0.00
Result entropy
1.00
—
Goal Difference Std
1.95
100.0
Stability score
0.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
1
Eligible Matches
48
0
Lead Matches
12
—
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.89
0
Trailing Matches
13
—
Non-loss rate
38.5%
—
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
85.92
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
29
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
0
Long Rest History Matches
18
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.18
—
Portability PPG Range
0.35
—
Portability Score
73.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
1
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-9.33
PPG-0.38
GF-1.29
GA-1.17
PPG-0.25
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-47
Clean-sheet rate68.8%
Failed-to-score rate68.8%
History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate66.7%
Failed-to-score rate66.7%
History Matches-47
Goals Mean-1.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.69
Scored 2+ rate-0.33
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-1.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.70
History Matches-47
Conceded Mean-1.17
Clean-sheet rate68.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.33
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
History Matches-47
Result entropy-1.00
Stability score99.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.96
Eligible Matches-47
Lead Matches-12
Trailing Matches-13
Halftime Coverage Matches-47
First Half Goals For Mean-0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.63
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-96.33
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-29
Long Rest History Matches-18
Current Team ELO-9.33
Current Opponent ELO9.33
Current ELO Difference-18.66
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-47
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Portuense

W
Portuense3–1Pozoblanco25 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
D
Tomares1–1Portuense4 Oct · away
Pick: Tomares 63% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cádiz II

D
Córdoba II0–0Cádiz II25 Oct · away
Pick: Córdoba II 39% · missed
L
Utrera1–0Cádiz II4 Oct · away
Pick: Utrera 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Portuense and Cádiz II meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Portuense win 31.0%, draw 39.0%, Cádiz II win 30.0%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 35.5%. Both teams to score: 43.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.