ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain Group 10 - 10 2026

San Roque Lepe vs Tomares

San Roque Lepe Home · Elo 1,477
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tomares Away · Elo 1,507
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tomares win
San Roque Lepe win
31.5%
Draw
32.8%
Tomares winPick
35.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.3%
No50.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.8%
Under 2.554.2%

How much we know

San Roque Lepe history48 matches
Tomares history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Tomares are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tomares are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,507 against 1,477. On rating alone Tomares would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.13 goals a game over 48 matches for San Roque Lepe, against 1.22 over 50 for Tomares.

  • San Roque Lepe concede fewer

    San Roque Lepe concede 1.13 a game, Tomares 1.26.

  • Tomares games more often go over 2.5 goals

    31% of San Roque Lepe matches, against 54% for Tomares. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
San Roque Lepe
Tomares
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1476.8
ELO
1507.3
48
ELO · Matches
50
1476.8
Current Team ELO
1507.3
1507.3
Current Opponent ELO
1476.8
-30.56
Current ELO Difference
30.56
0.46
Expected score
0.54
48
History Matches
50
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
48.05
Overperformance
50.55
-0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.00
0.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.50
0.70
Goals for per game
1.40
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
50
1.25
PPG
1.36
31.3%
Win rate
36.0%
31.3%
Draw rate
28.0%
37.5%
Loss rate
36.0%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
31.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.0%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
25
1.70
PPG
1.24
47.8%
Win rate
32.0%
26.1%
Draw rate
28.0%
26.1%
Loss rate
40.0%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
23
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.13
Goals for per game
1.22
60.4%
Scoring rate
62.0%
43.8%
BTTS rate
48.0%
1.39
Goals for per game
0.96
69.6%
Scoring rate
52.0%
39.1%
BTTS rate
36.0%
48
History Matches
50
1.13
Goals Mean
1.22
1.24
Goals Std
1.22
60.4%
Scored 1+ rate
62.0%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.0%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.13
Goals against per game
1.26
72.9%
Conceding rate
76.0%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.32
60.9%
Conceding rate
72.0%
48
History Matches
50
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.26
0.93
Conceded Std
1.07
31.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.0%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
39.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.0%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
39.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.0%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
50
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.90
0.35
Stability score
0.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
50
12
Lead Matches
12
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.69
15
Trailing Matches
15
26.7%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.3
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
22
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.05
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.09
Portability PPG Range
0.69
91.43
Portability Score
59.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-30.56
PPG-0.11
GF-0.10
GA-0.14
PPG0.46
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Failed-to-score rate1.6%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-0.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.05
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.59
Portability Score32.17
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO-30.56
Current Opponent ELO30.56
Current ELO Difference-61.12
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

San Roque Lepe

W
San Roque Lepe1–0Egabrense25 Oct · home
Pick: San Roque Lepe 63% · hit
W
Recreativo Huelva0–3San Roque Lepe18 Oct · away
Pick: Recreativo Huelva 52% · missed
W
San Roque Lepe1–0Betis C4 Oct · home
Pick: San Roque Lepe 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tomares

W
Betis C0–1Tomares25 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
D
Tomares1–1Portuense4 Oct · home
Pick: Tomares 63% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

San Roque Lepe and Tomares meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: San Roque Lepe win 31.5%, draw 32.8%, Tomares win 35.7%. The pick is Tomares win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.8%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.