Portugalete vs Real Unión
Portugalete
Postponed
Wed 4 Nov
Was due at 18:00 UTC
Real Unión
Match result probability Model pick: Portugalete win
Portugalete winPick
44.8%
Draw
28.0%
Real Unión win
27.2%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes54.7%
No45.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%
How much we know
Portugalete history56 matches
Real Unión history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Portugalete are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,630 against 1,607. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Portugalete score more
1.89 goals a game over 56 matches for Portugalete, against 1.58 over 55 for Real Unión.
-
Portugalete concede fewer
Portugalete concede 0.91 a game, Real Unión 1.13.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
50% of Portugalete matches, against 53% for Real Unión. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 14 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Portugalete
Real Unión
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1630.3
ELO
1607.3
56
ELO · Matches
55
1630.3
Current Team ELO
1607.3
1607.3
Current Opponent ELO
1630.3
23.03
Current ELO Difference
-23.03
0.53
Expected score
0.47
56
History Matches
55
0.12
Residual Mean
0.10
58.84
Overperformance
57.03
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals 90
56
Matches
55
2.07
PPG
1.73
60.7%
Win rate
49.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.5%
14.3%
Loss rate
25.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.7%
26.8%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
28
2.20
PPG
1.57
70.0%
Win rate
46.4%
10.0%
Draw rate
17.9%
20.0%
Loss rate
35.7%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
30
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.89
Goals for per game
1.58
87.5%
Scoring rate
80.0%
53.6%
BTTS rate
56.4%
2.07
Goals for per game
1.32
83.3%
Scoring rate
78.6%
46.7%
BTTS rate
60.7%
56
History Matches
55
1.89
Goals Mean
1.58
1.46
Goals Std
1.25
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.6%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
25.5%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.91
Goals against per game
1.13
64.3%
Conceding rate
67.3%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.39
63.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
56
History Matches
55
0.91
Conceded Mean
1.13
0.89
Conceded Std
1.13
19.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
56
History Matches
55
0.84
Result entropy
0.95
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.70
15.57
Stability score
4.80
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
56
Eligible Matches
55
27
Lead Matches
16
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.77
9
Trailing Matches
9
44.4%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
82.10
Rest days
88.35
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
33
2.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
28
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.49
1.02
Portability PPG Range
0.97
54.04
Portability Score
50.75
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
56
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO23.03
PPG0.34
GF0.31
GA-0.22
PPG0.63
PPG0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate7.5%
Scored 2+ rate6.4%
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score10.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate9.0%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score3.29
Rest days-6.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.62
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO23.03
Current Opponent ELO-23.03
Current ELO Difference46.06
Expected score0.07
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Portugalete
D
Portugalete3–3Arosa1 Nov · home
Pick: Portugalete 54% · missed D
Basconia2–2Portugalete25 Oct · away
Pick: Portugalete 45% · missed D
Portugalete0–0Eibar II17 Oct · home
Pick: Portugalete 59% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Real Unión
L
Real Unión0–3Real Avilés31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Avilés 40% · hit W
Real Unión4–1Lugo23 Oct · home
Pick: Real Unión 41% · hit D
Extremadura 19242–2Real Unión17 Oct · away
Pick: Extremadura 1924 44% · missed W
Real Unión4–1CD Coria30 Aug · home
Pick: CD Coria 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Portugalete and Real Unión were due to play in Copa del Rey on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.