Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés
Amorebieta
Postponed
Wed 4 Nov
Was due at 19:00 UTC
UD Logroñés
Match result probability Model pick: UD Logroñés win
Amorebieta win
30.8%
Draw
31.2%
UD Logroñés winPick
37.9%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes49.8%
No50.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%
How much we know
Amorebieta history56 matches
UD Logroñés history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why UD Logroñés are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
UD Logroñés are rated 71 Elo points higher
Elo 1,597 against 1,526. On rating alone UD Logroñés would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
UD Logroñés score far more
1.14 goals a game over 56 matches for Amorebieta, against 1.80 over 59 for UD Logroñés.
-
UD Logroñés concede fewer
Amorebieta concede 1.07 a game, UD Logroñés 0.92.
-
UD Logroñés games more often go over 2.5 goals
41% of Amorebieta matches, against 56% for UD Logroñés. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Amorebieta
UD Logroñés
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1525.8
ELO
1597.1
56
ELO · Matches
59
1525.8
Current Team ELO
1597.1
1597.1
Current Opponent ELO
1525.8
-71.29
Current ELO Difference
71.29
0.40
Expected score
0.60
56
History Matches
59
0.02
Residual Mean
0.09
51.50
Overperformance
56.68
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.10
0.80
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals 90
56
Matches
59
1.39
PPG
1.68
37.5%
Win rate
49.2%
26.8%
Draw rate
20.3%
35.7%
Loss rate
30.5%
66.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.9%
41.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
27
1.59
PPG
1.22
44.4%
Win rate
33.3%
25.9%
Draw rate
22.2%
29.6%
Loss rate
44.4%
59.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
7.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.14
Goals for per game
1.80
69.6%
Scoring rate
76.3%
46.4%
BTTS rate
40.7%
1.19
Goals for per game
1.30
66.7%
Scoring rate
63.0%
40.7%
BTTS rate
37.0%
56
History Matches
59
1.14
Goals Mean
1.80
1.01
Goals Std
1.54
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
76.3%
32.1%
Scored 2+ rate
47.5%
10.7%
Scored 3+ rate
32.2%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
0.92
66.1%
Conceding rate
59.3%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.15
63.0%
Conceding rate
70.4%
56
History Matches
59
1.07
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.05
Conceded Std
0.96
26.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.0%
10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.2%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
56
History Matches
59
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.44
Goal Difference Std
2.08
0.93
Stability score
5.77
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
56
Eligible Matches
58
19
Lead Matches
24
73.7%
Lead Win Rate
79.2%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.83
11
Trailing Matches
13
18.2%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals 50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
88.42
Rest days
74.38
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
26
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.08
Portability PPG Range
0.92
92.45
Portability Score
56.83
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
56
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-71.29
PPG-0.29
GF-0.65
GA0.16
PPG0.37
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.65
Goals Std-0.53
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.65
Stability score-4.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-0.83
Portability Score35.62
Rest days14.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Current Team ELO-71.29
Current Opponent ELO71.29
Current ELO Difference-142.6
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Amorebieta
W
Amorebieta1–0Gimnástica Torrelavega1 Nov · home
Pick: Amorebieta 41% · hit W
Amorebieta2–1Coruxo24 Oct · home
Pick: Amorebieta 46% · hit W
Gernika1–2Amorebieta17 Oct · away
Pick: Amorebieta 43% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
UD Logroñés
L
UD Logroñés0–1Mirandes31 Oct · home
Pick: UD Logroñés 41% · missed W
Real Avilés1–3UD Logroñés24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Avilés 42% · missed D
UD Logroñés1–1Cultural Leonesa18 Oct · home
Pick: UD Logroñés 43% · missed L
Lugo3–1UD Logroñés12 Oct · away
Pick: UD Logroñés 39% · missed W
UD Logroñés2–1Deportivo La Coruña II4 Oct · home
Pick: UD Logroñés 48% · hit About this match
Amorebieta and UD Logroñés were due to play in Copa del Rey on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.