Utebo vs Sabadell
Utebo
Postponed
Wed 4 Nov
Was due at 19:30 UTC
Sabadell
Match result probability Model pick: Sabadell win
Utebo win
25.4%
Draw
26.8%
Sabadell winPick
47.8%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes50.3%
No49.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.3%
Under 2.549.7%
How much we know
Utebo history56 matches
Sabadell history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 11 h ahead30 Oct · 08:13 UTC
- Re-published 12 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 19:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Sabadell are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Sabadell are rated 55 Elo points higher
Elo 1,588 against 1,533. On rating alone Sabadell would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.50 goals a game over 56 matches for Utebo, against 1.39 over 72 for Sabadell.
-
Sabadell concede fewer
Utebo concede 1.23 a game, Sabadell 0.81.
-
Utebo games more often go over 2.5 goals
54% of Utebo matches, against 39% for Sabadell. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Utebo
Sabadell
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1532.9
ELO
1588.0
56
ELO · Matches
72
1532.9
Current Team ELO
1588.0
1588.0
Current Opponent ELO
1532.9
-55.16
Current ELO Difference
55.16
0.42
Expected score
0.58
56
History Matches
72
0.03
Residual Mean
0.05
52.31
Overperformance
54.04
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals 90
56
Matches
72
1.61
PPG
1.65
46.4%
Win rate
43.1%
21.4%
Draw rate
36.1%
32.1%
Loss rate
20.8%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
63.9%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
23.6%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
39
1.90
PPG
1.44
55.2%
Win rate
35.9%
24.1%
Draw rate
35.9%
20.7%
Loss rate
28.2%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
35.9%
48.3%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
29
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.50
Goals for per game
1.39
80.4%
Scoring rate
66.7%
53.6%
BTTS rate
34.7%
1.90
Goals for per game
1.15
86.2%
Scoring rate
61.5%
62.1%
BTTS rate
38.5%
56
History Matches
72
1.50
Goals Mean
1.39
1.10
Goals Std
1.39
80.4%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
46.4%
Scored 2+ rate
38.9%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.90
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.23
Goals against per game
0.81
67.9%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.21
Goals against per game
0.95
72.4%
Conceding rate
59.0%
56
History Matches
72
1.23
Conceded Mean
0.81
1.13
Conceded Std
0.98
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.6%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.2%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
0.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.0%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.0%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
56
History Matches
72
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.78
4.32
Stability score
3.75
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
56
Eligible Matches
72
19
Lead Matches
28
94.7%
Lead Win Rate
82.1%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.88
19
Trailing Matches
13
31.6%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
98.13
Rest days
73.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.82
24
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
8
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.23
Portability PPG Range
0.50
81.47
Portability Score
72.19
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
56
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-55.16
PPG-0.05
GF0.11
GA0.43
PPG0.46
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-16
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate13.7%
Scored 2+ rate7.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.74
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.70
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.43
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate12.1%
Conceded 3+ rate11.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score0.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.61
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate12.6%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate0.8%
Trailing Win Rate2.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.27
Portability Score9.28
Rest days25.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO-55.16
Current Opponent ELO55.16
Current ELO Difference-110.3
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Utebo
D
Náxara1–1Utebo31 Oct · away
Pick: Náxara 37% · missed D
Utebo1–1UD Logroñés II24 Oct · home
Pick: Utebo 51% · missed L
Barcelona B2–1Utebo17 Oct · away
Pick: Utebo 40% · missed D
Barbastro1–1Utebo4 Oct · away
Pick: Utebo 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Sabadell
L
Albacete2–1Sabadell31 Oct · away
Pick: Albacete 42% · hit D
Sabadell1–1Tenerife25 Oct · home
Pick: Tenerife 35% · missed L
Burgos1–0Sabadell18 Oct · away
Pick: Burgos 37% · hit W
Sabadell1–0Almeria29 Aug · home
Pick: Almeria 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Utebo and Sabadell were due to play in Copa del Rey on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.