Reddis vs Barakaldo
Reddis
Postponed
Wed 4 Nov
Was due at 19:30 UTC
Barakaldo
Match result probability Model pick: Reddis win
Reddis winPick
42.6%
Draw
26.9%
Barakaldo win
30.5%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes51.2%
No48.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.7%
Under 2.549.3%
How much we know
Reddis history56 matches
Barakaldo history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 11 h ahead30 Oct · 08:13 UTC
- Re-published 12 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 19:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Reddis are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Reddis are rated 55 Elo points higher
Elo 1,577 against 1,522. On rating alone Reddis would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Reddis score more
1.46 goals a game over 56 matches for Reddis, against 1.21 over 61 for Barakaldo.
-
Reddis concede fewer
Reddis concede 1.02 a game, Barakaldo 1.15.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
52% of Reddis matches, against 44% for Barakaldo. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Reddis
Barakaldo
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1576.5
ELO
1521.7
56
ELO · Matches
61
1576.5
Current Team ELO
1521.7
1521.7
Current Opponent ELO
1576.5
54.85
Current ELO Difference
-54.85
0.58
Expected score
0.42
56
History Matches
61
0.07
Residual Mean
0.01
54.95
Overperformance
51.11
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
0.90
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals 90
56
Matches
61
1.71
PPG
1.28
50.0%
Win rate
32.8%
21.4%
Draw rate
29.5%
28.6%
Loss rate
37.7%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
51.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.3%
19.6%
Over 3.5 rate
16.4%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
32
2.00
PPG
0.81
60.7%
Win rate
15.6%
17.9%
Draw rate
34.4%
21.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.6%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
28
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.46
Goals for per game
1.21
78.6%
Scoring rate
68.9%
53.6%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.68
Goals for per game
0.94
78.6%
Scoring rate
59.4%
46.4%
BTTS rate
53.1%
56
History Matches
61
1.46
Goals Mean
1.21
1.15
Goals Std
1.10
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
68.9%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
1.15
64.3%
Conceding rate
77.0%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.34
57.1%
Conceding rate
87.5%
56
History Matches
61
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.15
0.95
Conceded Std
0.81
30.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.4%
5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.3%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
56
History Matches
61
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.42
5.83
Stability score
0.46
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
55
Eligible Matches
61
13
Lead Matches
13
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.82
7
Trailing Matches
18
14.3%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
74.10
Rest days
82.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
19
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.28
1.38
Portability PPG Range
0.64
46.18
Portability Score
64.27
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
56
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO54.85
PPG0.44
GF0.25
GA-0.13
PPG1.19
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate12.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate30.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate9.7%
Scored 2+ rate5.2%
Scored 3+ rate8.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.74
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.54
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate12.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score5.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.77
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate15.4%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.74
Portability Score-18.09
Rest days-8.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO54.85
Current Opponent ELO-54.85
Current ELO Difference109.7
Expected score0.16
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Reddis
L
Terrassa2–1Reddis1 Nov · away
Pick: Reddis 40% · missed D
Peña Sport1–1Reddis24 Oct · away
Pick: Peña Sport 35% · missed D
Reddis1–1Espanyol II18 Oct · home
Pick: Reddis 38% · missed L
Reddis1–4Manresa4 Oct · home
Pick: Reddis 39% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Barakaldo
D
Barakaldo0–0Pontevedra1 Nov · home
Pick: Pontevedra 44% · missed D
Ponferradina0–0Barakaldo24 Oct · away
Pick: Ponferradina 50% · missed W
Barakaldo2–0Mirandes17 Oct · home
Pick: Mirandes 41% · missed D
Barakaldo0–0Cultural Leonesa30 Aug · home
Pick: Cultural Leonesa 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Reddis and Barakaldo were due to play in Copa del Rey on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.