Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira
What we said before kickoff Result: Deportivo La Guaira win
Portuguesa FC win
27.4%
Draw
30.2%
Deportivo La Guaira winPick Result
42.3%
How our picks did
Settled automatically from the final score. Every miss stays on the record.
Match result
Our pickDeportivo La Guaira win · 42.3%
What happenedDeportivo La Guaira win · we gave it 42.3%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 53.2%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 50.9%
What happenedNo · 0–3
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Deportivo La Guaira win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
42%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.4
on average A pick at 42% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
1'
Yellow cardMariano Rodriguez
Yellow cardJuan Reyes
23' 25'
GoalJuan Castellanos
VARVictor Hugo·Navas Barrera
34' 35'
Yellow cardCristopher Varela
Yellow cardVictor Hugo·Navas Barrera
45+3' Red cardLautaro Lovazzano
45+5' Yellow cardMoisés Acuña
45+10' 45+11'
Penalty goalAnthony Uribe
46'
SubstitutionJuan Sebastián Zeballos off · Jose Ali Meza on
SubstitutionRidenson Morillo off · Ricardo Toussaint on
46' SubstitutionVictor Hugo·Navas Barrera off · Wilfredo Daniel Pena on
51' 54'
Yellow cardJose Ali Meza
75'
Red cardAnthony Uribe
SubstitutionJose Soto off · heber garcia on
78' 80'
GoalJesús Miguel González Montoya · assist Nelson Hernandez
SubstitutionJonathan Canete off · Joel Martínez on
86' SubstitutionOvidio Lopez off · Albaro Polo on
86' 90+4'
SubstitutionMiguel Eduardo Gonzalez Acosta off · Manuel Alejandro Sulbarán Solano on
90+4'
SubstitutionJesús Miguel González Montoya off · Flabian Londono Bedoya on
Yellow cardJoel Martínez
90+10' 90+16'
Red cardLuis Angel Casimiro Pena Martinez
90+17'
SubstitutionJose Ali Meza off · Alfonzo Diego Sosa Sanchez on
Penalty missedCesar Urpin
90+17' 90+18'
SubstitutionJuan Castellanos off · helzon pomozy on
90+21'
Yellow cardManuel Alejandro Sulbarán Solano
Lineups
Portuguesa FC 4-4-2 · Deportivo La Guaira 4-3-3
22Reyes 2Benítez 3Aguirre 33Acuña 66Urpín 19López 5Soto 24Lovazzano 13Navas 70Morillo 9Cañete 1Varela 33Hernández 28Villero 27Correa 16Martinez 8Perdomo 10Castellanos 15González 11Gonzalez 9Uribe 30Zeballos
Substitutes · Portuguesa FC · Coach Leo González
- 7R. Rojas
- 8R. Toussaint
- 4N. Trejo
- 6A. Trujillo
- 17K. Zuniga
- 14H. García
- 99J. Martínez
- 21R. Mendoza
- 29W. Pena
- 20J. Pérez
- 23A. Polo
- 1Samuel Rodriguez
Substitutes · Deportivo La Guaira · Coach Mariano Rodriguez
- 67Gabriel Vargas
- 22M. Sulbarán
- 45D. A. Sanchez Sosa
- 12J. Sánchez
- 51helzon pomozy
- 7J. Meza
- 36F. Londoño
- 23J. Herrera
- 37Ricardo Villanueva
Both teams to score
Yes50.9%
No49.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.546.8%
Under 2.553.2%
How much we know
Portuguesa FC history43 matches
Deportivo La Guaira history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
- Kickoff4 Nov · 21:30 UTC
- Full time: 0–3One of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically from the final score.5 Nov · 03:19 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.
Why Deportivo La Guaira are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Deportivo La Guaira are rated 92 Elo points higher
Elo 1,607 against 1,515. On rating alone Deportivo La Guaira would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.
-
Deportivo La Guaira score more
1.14 goals a game over 43 matches for Portuguesa FC, against 1.58 over 52 for Deportivo La Guaira.
-
Deportivo La Guaira concede fewer
Portuguesa FC concede 1.30 a game, Deportivo La Guaira 0.92.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
42% of Portuguesa FC matches, against 44% for Deportivo La Guaira. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportivo La Guaira@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1515.5
ELO
1607.4
43
ELO · Matches
52
1515.5
Current Team ELO
1607.4
1607.4
Current Opponent ELO
1515.5
-91.97
Current ELO Difference
91.97
0.37
Expected score
0.63
43
History Matches
52
0.01
Residual Mean
0.09
50.67
Overperformance
56.53
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
3.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.10
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.25
Overall performance9 signals 90
43
Matches
52
1.21
PPG
1.90
30.2%
Win rate
53.8%
30.2%
Draw rate
28.8%
39.5%
Loss rate
17.3%
67.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
41.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.2%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
29
1.58
PPG
1.93
47.4%
Win rate
55.2%
15.8%
Draw rate
27.6%
36.8%
Loss rate
17.2%
52.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
26.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
10.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
19
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.14
Goals for per game
1.58
69.8%
Scoring rate
84.6%
46.5%
BTTS rate
55.8%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.41
68.4%
Scoring rate
89.7%
21.1%
BTTS rate
65.5%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.58
78.9%
Scoring rate
84.2%
42.1%
BTTS rate
52.6%
43
History Matches
52
1.14
Goals Mean
1.58
1.07
Goals Std
1.25
69.8%
Scored 1+ rate
84.6%
27.9%
Scored 2+ rate
42.3%
11.6%
Scored 3+ rate
17.3%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.30
Goals against per game
0.92
67.4%
Conceding rate
61.5%
0.74
Goals against per game
1.00
47.4%
Conceding rate
69.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.74
52.6%
Conceding rate
57.9%
43
History Matches
52
1.30
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.27
Conceded Std
0.98
39.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.2%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.8%
0.74
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
43
History Matches
52
0.99
Result entropy
0.91
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.59
0.77
Stability score
9.38
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
43
Eligible Matches
52
13
Lead Matches
21
61.5%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.81
14
Trailing Matches
8
21.4%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.33
Rest days
74.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
6
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
21
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.28
Competition & season17 signals 170
19
Matches
19
1.68
PPG
1.95
47.4%
Win rate
52.6%
26.3%
Draw rate
36.8%
26.3%
Loss rate
10.5%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
31.6%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
15.8%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
19
Current Competition Matches
19
1.68
Current Competition PPG
1.95
0.53
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.84
3
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.77
1.02
Portability PPG Range
1.90
53.10
Portability Score
39.36
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
43
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-91.97
PPG-0.69
GF-0.44
GA0.38
PPG-0.26
PPG-0.35
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate14.8%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate21.6%
Failed-to-score rate21.2%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.48
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate18.4%
Conceded 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.16
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score-8.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.20
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.26
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.32
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-0.88
Portability Score13.74
Rest days-0.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.23
Current Team ELO-91.97
Current Opponent ELO91.97
Current ELO Difference-183.9
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Portuguesa FC
D
Metropolitanos FC0–0Portuguesa FC28 Oct · away
Pick: Metropolitanos FC 44% · missed L
Portuguesa FC1–3Carabobo FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Carabobo FC 37% · hit L
Portuguesa FC0–2Zamora FC21 Oct · home
Pick: Portuguesa FC 47% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Deportivo La Guaira
D
Deportivo La Guaira2–2Metropolitanos FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo La Guaira 63% · missed W
Deportivo La Guaira3–0Aragua FC21 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo La Guaira 52% · hit L
Deportivo La Guaira1–2Trujillanos FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo La Guaira 62% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Portuguesa FC and Deportivo La Guaira finished 0–3 in Primera División on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–2 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Portuguesa FC win 27.4%, draw 30.2%, Deportivo La Guaira win 42.3%. One of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.