Progres Niederkorn vs Wiltz
Match result probability Model pick: Progres Niederkorn win
Progres Niederkorn winPick
68.2%
Draw
14.8%
Wiltz win
17.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.9%
No40.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.567.5%
Under 2.532.5%
How much we know
Progres Niederkorn history63 matches
Wiltz history28 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Progres Niederkorn
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Progres Niederkorn are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,471 against 1,461. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.43 goals a game over 63 matches for Progres Niederkorn, against 1.46 over 28 for Wiltz.
-
Progres Niederkorn concede fewer
Progres Niederkorn concede 1.52 a game, Wiltz 2.11.
-
Wiltz games more often go over 2.5 goals
54% of Progres Niederkorn matches, against 64% for Wiltz. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wiltz@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1471.2
ELO
1460.9
63
ELO · Matches
28
1471.2
Current Team ELO
1460.9
1460.9
Current Opponent ELO
1471.2
10.30
Current ELO Difference
-10.30
0.51
Expected score
0.49
63
History Matches
28
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
47.97
Overperformance
46.71
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
0.60
Goals against per game
3.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
2.10
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.44
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.55
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
4.00
Overall performance9 signals 90
63
Matches
28
1.27
PPG
1.11
36.5%
Win rate
28.6%
17.5%
Draw rate
25.0%
46.0%
Loss rate
46.4%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
89.3%
54.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
46.4%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.86
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
12
1.17
PPG
0.58
33.3%
Win rate
8.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
58.3%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
30
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.43
Goals for per game
1.46
71.4%
Scoring rate
67.9%
57.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.25
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
53.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
63
History Matches
28
1.43
Goals Mean
1.46
1.42
Goals Std
1.74
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
67.9%
38.1%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
17.5%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.52
Goals against per game
2.11
82.5%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.70
Goals against per game
2.33
86.7%
Conceding rate
91.7%
63
History Matches
28
1.52
Conceded Mean
2.11
1.22
Conceded Std
1.80
39.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.1%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.7%
1.70
Venue Conceded Mean
2.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
63
History Matches
28
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
1.87
Goal Difference Std
2.86
6.27
Stability score
3.45
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
62
Eligible Matches
28
16
Lead Matches
8
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.79
15
Trailing Matches
10
26.7%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
28
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.43
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.00
Rest days
76.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
39
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
21
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.86
Portability PPG Std
0.16
2.19
Portability PPG Range
0.33
36.72
Portability Score
76.09
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
63
Clean History Matches
28
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO10.30
PPG0.16
GF-0.04
GA-0.58
PPG0.58
PPG1.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches35
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches35
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate3.6%
Scored 2+ rate6.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.22
History Matches35
Conceded Mean-0.58
Conceded Std-0.58
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.68
History Matches35
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.98
Stability score2.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.51
Eligible Matches34
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches34
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.70
Portability PPG Range1.86
Portability Score-39.37
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches22
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.23
Current Team ELO10.30
Current Opponent ELO-10.30
Current ELO Difference20.61
Expected score0.03
History Matches35
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Progres Niederkorn
W
Progres Niederkorn3–0Swift Hesperange31 Oct · home
Pick: Progres Niederkorn 67% · hit L
Etzella Ettelbruck2–0Progres Niederkorn24 Oct · away
Pick: Progres Niederkorn 47% · missed L
Progres Niederkorn1–2UN Kaerjeng 9717 Oct · home
Pick: Progres Niederkorn 62% · missed L
US Mondorf-les-bains2–1Progres Niederkorn30 Aug · away
Pick: US Mondorf-les-bains 47% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Wiltz
D
Résidence Walferdange1–1Wiltz31 Oct · away
Pick: Wiltz 41% · missed D
Wiltz3–3US Rumelange25 Oct · home
Pick: Wiltz 51% · missed L
US Mondorf-les-bains4–1Wiltz18 Oct · away
Pick: US Mondorf-les-bains 74% · hit L
Wiltz1–2F91 Dudelange30 Aug · home
Pick: Wiltz 43% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Progres Niederkorn and Wiltz meet in Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Progres Niederkorn win 68.2%, draw 14.8%, Wiltz win 17.0%. The pick is Progres Niederkorn win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.5%. Both teams to score: 59.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.