Progresul Pecica vs Viitorul Arad
Match result probability Model pick: Progresul Pecica win
Progresul Pecica winPick
41.0%
Draw
21.2%
Viitorul Arad win
37.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.4%
No41.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.560.3%
Under 2.539.7%
How much we know
Progresul Pecica history30 matches
Viitorul Arad history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Progresul Pecica
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
- Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre6 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Progresul Pecica are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,481 against 1,474. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Progresul Pecica score more
1.53 goals a game over 30 matches for Progresul Pecica, against 1.29 over 34 for Viitorul Arad.
-
Defences are close
Progresul Pecica concede 1.73 a game, Viitorul Arad 1.65.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
70% of Progresul Pecica matches, against 68% for Viitorul Arad. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 30 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Viitorul Arad@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1481.1
ELO
1473.5
30
ELO · Matches
34
1481.1
Current Team ELO
1473.5
1473.5
Current Opponent ELO
1481.1
7.63
Current ELO Difference
-7.63
0.51
Expected score
0.49
30
History Matches
34
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.04
47.03
Overperformance
47.23
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.40
2.20
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
0.90
2.00
Goals against per game
2.30
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.61
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals 90
30
Matches
34
1.20
PPG
1.29
33.3%
Win rate
41.2%
20.0%
Draw rate
5.9%
46.7%
Loss rate
52.9%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals 100
12
Matches
18
2.00
PPG
1.06
58.3%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
5.6%
16.7%
Loss rate
61.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
12
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.53
Goals for per game
1.29
73.3%
Scoring rate
70.6%
56.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.17
83.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
30
History Matches
34
1.53
Goals Mean
1.29
1.43
Goals Std
1.07
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.2%
23.3%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.73
Goals against per game
1.65
76.7%
Conceding rate
79.4%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.89
58.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
30
History Matches
34
1.73
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.65
Conceded Std
1.33
46.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.1%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.5%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
30
History Matches
34
0.95
Result entropy
0.79
2.34
Goal Difference Std
2.10
4.99
Stability score
20.93
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
20
Eligible Matches
21
5
Lead Matches
6
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
1.00
9
Trailing Matches
6
11.1%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
99.85
Rest days
99.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
10
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.16
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.34
Portability PPG Std
1.03
0.68
Portability PPG Range
2.45
59.50
Portability Score
32.63
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
30
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO7.63
PPG-0.09
GF0.24
GA0.09
PPG0.94
PPG0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate2.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.61
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.16
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score-15.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.48
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.69
Portability PPG Range-1.77
Portability Score26.88
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO7.63
Current Opponent ELO-7.63
Current ELO Difference15.25
Expected score0.02
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Progresul Pecica
W
Progresul Pecica2–1Nera Bogodinţi30 Oct · home
Pick: Progresul Pecica 58% · hit L
Unirea Alba Iulia4–0Progresul Pecica24 Oct · away
Pick: Unirea Alba Iulia 68% · hit L
Progresul Pecica1–2Metalurgistul Cugir17 Oct · home
Pick: Metalurgistul Cugir 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Viitorul Arad
W
Cetate Deva1–4Viitorul Arad30 Oct · away
Pick: Cetate Deva 39% · missed W
Viitorul Arad2–1Poli Timisoara 224 Oct · home
Pick: Viitorul Arad 61% · hit W
Viitorul Arad1–0Timişul Şag17 Oct · home
Pick: Viitorul Arad 42% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Progresul Pecica and Viitorul Arad meet in Liga III - Serie 7 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Progresul Pecica win 41.0%, draw 21.2%, Viitorul Arad win 37.8%. The pick is Progresul Pecica win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.3%. Both teams to score: 58.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.