Progresul Spartac vs Alexandria
Match result probability Model pick: Progresul Spartac win
Progresul Spartac winPick
60.2%
Draw
19.7%
Alexandria win
20.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.4%
No43.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.4%
Under 2.542.6%
How much we know
Progresul Spartac history32 matches
Alexandria history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Progresul Spartac
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.2%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Progresul Spartac are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Progresul Spartac are rated 53 Elo points higher
Elo 1,513 against 1,459. On rating alone Progresul Spartac would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Progresul Spartac score more
1.88 goals a game over 32 matches for Progresul Spartac, against 1.34 over 29 for Alexandria.
-
Progresul Spartac concede fewer
Progresul Spartac concede 1.38 a game, Alexandria 1.66.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
56% of Progresul Spartac matches, against 59% for Alexandria. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alexandria@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1512.6
ELO
1459.2
32
ELO · Matches
29
1512.6
Current Team ELO
1459.2
1459.2
Current Opponent ELO
1512.6
53.37
Current ELO Difference
-53.37
0.58
Expected score
0.42
32
History Matches
29
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.08
51.92
Overperformance
45.37
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.80
3.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
2.15
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.53
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals 90
32
Matches
29
1.53
PPG
1.10
46.9%
Win rate
31.0%
12.5%
Draw rate
17.2%
40.6%
Loss rate
51.7%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals 100
18
Matches
16
1.61
PPG
0.94
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
11.1%
Draw rate
18.8%
38.9%
Loss rate
56.3%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
18
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.88
Goals for per game
1.34
81.3%
Scoring rate
75.9%
62.5%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.38
77.8%
Scoring rate
75.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
62.5%
32
History Matches
29
1.88
Goals Mean
1.34
1.75
Goals Std
1.03
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.9%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.8%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.3%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.38
Goals against per game
1.66
81.3%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.17
Goals against per game
2.00
88.9%
Conceding rate
87.5%
32
History Matches
29
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.29
Conceded Std
1.37
31.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.3%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.1%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
32
History Matches
29
0.89
Result entropy
0.92
2.26
Goal Difference Std
1.84
10.70
Stability score
8.32
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
26
Eligible Matches
15
8
Lead Matches
4
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.75
5
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
86.90
Rest days
107.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
13
Normal Rest History Matches
12
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
18
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.81
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.71
1.07
Portability PPG Range
1.42
50.83
Portability Score
41.38
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
32
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO53.37
PPG0.43
GF0.53
GA-0.28
PPG0.67
PPG1.80
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.53
Goals Std0.72
Scored 1+ rate5.4%
Scored 2+ rate5.2%
Scored 3+ rate14.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std1.15
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score2.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.09
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.72
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.35
Portability Score9.45
Rest days-21.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO53.37
Current Opponent ELO-53.37
Current ELO Difference106.7
Expected score0.15
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance6.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Progresul Spartac
L
LPS HD Clinceni3–2Progresul Spartac30 Oct · away
Pick: LPS HD Clinceni 47% · hit L
Progresul Spartac0–6Petrolul Ploiesti27 Oct · home
Pick: Progresul Spartac 37% · missed D
Progresul Spartac0–0Cetatea24 Oct · home
Pick: Progresul Spartac 39% · missed L
Dinamo Bucureşti II2–0Progresul Spartac16 Oct · away
Pick: Progresul Spartac 51% · missed L
Progresul Spartac2–5Concordia1 Sep · home
Pick: Concordia 55% · hit Alexandria
W
Oxigen Bucuresti0–2Alexandria31 Oct · away
Pick: Oxigen Bucuresti 38% · missed L
Alexandria0–3LPS HD Clinceni23 Oct · home
Pick: LPS HD Clinceni 46% · hit D
Cetatea1–1Alexandria16 Oct · away
Pick: Cetatea 56% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Progresul Spartac and Alexandria meet in Liga III - Serie 5 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Progresul Spartac win 60.2%, draw 19.7%, Alexandria win 20.1%. The pick is Progresul Spartac win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.4%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.