ScoreProb
Premyer Liqa Azerbaijan Round 11 2026

Qarabag vs Turan

Qarabag Home · Elo 1,650
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Turan Away · Elo 1,573
Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Qarabag win
Qarabag winPick
62.9%
Draw
23.6%
Turan win
13.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.7%
No50.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.1%
Under 2.545.9%

How much we know

Qarabag history88 matches
Turan history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Qarabag are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Qarabag are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,650 against 1,573. On rating alone Qarabag would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Qarabag score far more

    2.05 goals a game over 88 matches for Qarabag, against 1.29 over 59 for Turan.

  • Turan concede fewer

    Qarabag concede 1.02 a game, Turan 0.88.

  • Qarabag games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Qarabag matches, against 42% for Turan. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Qarabag
Turan
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1650.3
ELO
1572.6
88
ELO · Matches
59
1650.3
Current Team ELO
1572.6
1572.6
Current Opponent ELO
1650.3
77.66
Current ELO Difference
-77.66
0.61
Expected score
0.39
88
History Matches
59
0.08
Residual Mean
0.06
56.65
Overperformance
54.34
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.50
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
0.90
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
88
Matches
59
1.97
PPG
1.68
60.2%
Win rate
47.5%
15.9%
Draw rate
25.4%
23.9%
Loss rate
27.1%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.1%
58.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
11.9%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
30
2.16
PPG
1.70
65.9%
Win rate
46.7%
18.2%
Draw rate
30.0%
15.9%
Loss rate
23.3%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
63.3%
56.8%
Over 2.5 rate
36.7%
38.6%
Over 3.5 rate
10.0%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
44
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.05
Goals for per game
1.29
83.0%
Scoring rate
79.7%
45.5%
BTTS rate
45.8%
2.32
Goals for per game
1.33
88.6%
Scoring rate
76.7%
38.6%
BTTS rate
40.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
88
History Matches
59
2.05
Goals Mean
1.29
1.56
Goals Std
1.04
83.0%
Scored 1+ rate
79.7%
59.1%
Scored 2+ rate
32.2%
35.2%
Scored 3+ rate
11.9%
2.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
0.88
56.8%
Conceding rate
54.2%
0.86
Goals against per game
0.73
45.5%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
88
History Matches
59
1.02
Conceded Mean
0.88
1.25
Conceded Std
0.99
26.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.4%
11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.8%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
0.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
88
History Matches
59
0.86
Result entropy
0.96
2.16
Goal Difference Std
1.51
14.46
Stability score
3.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
88
Eligible Matches
59
38
Lead Matches
22
81.6%
Lead Win Rate
77.3%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.82
15
Trailing Matches
13
33.3%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
88
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.94
Rest days
74.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.63
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
63
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.08
16
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
1
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
1
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
10
Competition Season Count
5
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.33
0.89
Portability PPG Range
0.81
61.50
Portability Score
60.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
88
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO77.66
PPG0.29
GF0.76
GA0.14
PPG1.00
PPG0.46
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches29
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches29
Goals Mean0.76
Goals Std0.52
Scored 1+ rate3.3%
Scored 2+ rate26.9%
Scored 3+ rate23.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.98
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.77
History Matches29
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate0.7%
Conceded 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches29
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.65
Stability score10.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.49
Eligible Matches29
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate4.3%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate2.6%
Trailing Win Rate4.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches29
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score1.44
Rest days5.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest History Matches27
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match1.36
Current Team ELO77.66
Current Opponent ELO-77.66
Current ELO Difference155.3
Expected score0.22
History Matches29
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance2.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Qarabag

D
Qabala0–0Qarabag31 Oct · away
Pick: Qarabag 60% · missed
D
Sabah FA0–0Qarabag25 Oct · away
Pick: Qarabag 36% · missed
D
Qarabag3–3Neftchi Baku17 Oct · home
Pick: Qarabag 51% · missed
W
Sumqayıt0–1Qarabag31 Aug · away
Pick: Qarabag 67% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Turan

W
Turan3–2Sabah FA30 Oct · home
Pick: Sabah FA 55% · missed
D
Neftchi Baku1–1Turan24 Oct · away
Pick: Neftchi Baku 54% · missed
L
Imisli FK1–0Turan18 Oct · away
Pick: Turan 45% · missed
L
Kapaz1–0Turan30 Aug · away
Pick: Turan 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Qarabag and Turan meet in Premyer Liqa on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Qarabag win 62.9%, draw 23.6%, Turan win 13.5%. The pick is Qarabag win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.1%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.