ScoreProb
Premyer Liqa Azerbaijan Round 11 2026

Safa Baku vs Araz

Safa Baku Home · Elo 1,574
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Araz Away · Elo 1,496
ASK Arena, Baku Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Safa Baku win
Safa Baku winPick
56.9%
Draw
20.4%
Araz win
22.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.1%
No52.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%

How much we know

Safa Baku history31 matches
Araz history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Safa Baku are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Safa Baku are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,574 against 1,496. On rating alone Safa Baku would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Safa Baku score far more

    1.84 goals a game over 31 matches for Safa Baku, against 1.10 over 62 for Araz.

  • Safa Baku concede fewer

    Safa Baku concede 0.81 a game, Araz 1.53.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Safa Baku matches, against 47% for Araz. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Safa Baku
Araz
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1574.4
ELO
1496.3
31
ELO · Matches
62
1574.4
Current Team ELO
1496.3
1496.3
Current Opponent ELO
1574.4
78.15
Current ELO Difference
-78.15
0.61
Expected score
0.39
31
History Matches
62
0.11
Residual Mean
0.00
56.58
Overperformance
50.01
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
31
Matches
62
2.03
PPG
1.34
58.1%
Win rate
33.9%
29.0%
Draw rate
32.3%
12.9%
Loss rate
33.9%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
48.4%
Over 2.5 rate
46.8%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
30
2.14
PPG
1.07
57.1%
Win rate
23.3%
42.9%
Draw rate
36.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
1.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
14
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.84
Goals for per game
1.10
83.9%
Scoring rate
69.4%
45.2%
BTTS rate
48.4%
1.79
Goals for per game
1.10
92.9%
Scoring rate
73.3%
57.1%
BTTS rate
56.7%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
31
History Matches
62
1.84
Goals Mean
1.10
1.57
Goals Std
0.87
83.9%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
54.8%
Scored 2+ rate
37.1%
22.6%
Scored 3+ rate
3.2%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.81
Goals against per game
1.53
48.4%
Conceding rate
69.4%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.87
57.1%
Conceding rate
76.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
31
History Matches
62
0.81
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.09
Conceded Std
1.57
22.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.7%
3.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.0%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
51.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
51.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
51.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
31
History Matches
62
0.85
Result entropy
1.00
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.96
14.54
Stability score
0.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
31
Eligible Matches
62
13
Lead Matches
18
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.85
2
Trailing Matches
16
0.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.90
Rest days
75.80
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
16
Normal Rest History Matches
38
2.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
14
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
3
Competition Season Count
7
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.49
—
Portability PPG Range
1.25
—
Portability Score
50.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
31
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO78.15
PPG0.69
GF0.74
GA-0.73
PPG1.00
PPG1.08
PPG0.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate21.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate19.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-31
Goals Mean0.74
Goals Std0.69
Scored 1+ rate14.5%
Scored 2+ rate17.7%
Scored 3+ rate19.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean-0.73
Conceded Std-0.48
Clean-sheet rate21.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-1.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-31
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score14.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-31
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-31
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days1.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.79
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.69
Current Team ELO78.15
Current Opponent ELO-78.15
Current ELO Difference156.3
Expected score0.22
History Matches-31
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance6.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Safa Baku

D
Sumqayıt1–1Safa Baku2 Nov · away
Pick: Safa Baku 47% · missed
W
Safa Baku9–2Ağstafa Gəncləri28 Oct · home
Pick: Safa Baku 77% · hit
L
Safa Baku1–2Kapaz24 Oct · home
Pick: Safa Baku 63% · missed
L
Şamaxı FK3–2Safa Baku16 Oct · away
Pick: Safa Baku 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Araz

D
Araz2–2Zira31 Oct · home
Pick: Zira 60% · missed
W
Şimal0–6Araz27 Oct · away
Pick: Araz 45% · hit
L
Araz1–2Qabala23 Oct · home
Pick: Qabala 37% · hit
L
Sumqayıt2–1Araz16 Oct · away
Pick: Sumqayıt 43% · hit
L
Araz0–1Sabah FA31 Aug · home
Pick: Sabah FA 65% · hit

About this match

Safa Baku and Araz meet in Premyer Liqa on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at ASK Arena, Baku. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Safa Baku win 56.9%, draw 20.4%, Araz win 22.7%. The pick is Safa Baku win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.7%. Both teams to score: 47.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.