ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern Central England Round 17 2026

Racing Club Warwick vs Bury Town

Racing Club Warwick Home · Elo 1,533
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bury Town Away · Elo 1,568
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bury Town win
Racing Club Warwick win
28.3%
Draw
23.7%
Bury Town winPick
48.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.8%
No44.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%

How much we know

Racing Club Warwick history58 matches
Bury Town history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bury Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bury Town are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,533. On rating alone Bury Town would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.52 goals a game over 58 matches for Racing Club Warwick, against 1.59 over 61 for Bury Town.

  • Bury Town concede fewer

    Racing Club Warwick concede 1.47 a game, Bury Town 1.20.

  • Racing Club Warwick games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Racing Club Warwick matches, against 49% for Bury Town. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Racing Club Warwick
Bury Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1532.5
ELO
1568.3
58
ELO · Matches
61
1532.5
Current Team ELO
1568.3
1568.3
Current Opponent ELO
1532.5
-35.83
Current ELO Difference
35.83
0.45
Expected score
0.55
58
History Matches
61
0.03
Residual Mean
0.06
51.86
Overperformance
54.30
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.30
1.50
Goals for per game
2.10
1.00
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
61
1.41
PPG
1.57
37.9%
Win rate
42.6%
27.6%
Draw rate
29.5%
34.5%
Loss rate
27.9%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.0%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
49.2%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
30
1.39
PPG
1.50
35.7%
Win rate
43.3%
32.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
32.1%
Loss rate
36.7%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
63.3%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
28
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.52
Goals for per game
1.59
75.9%
Scoring rate
80.3%
62.1%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.79
Goals for per game
1.70
85.7%
Scoring rate
73.3%
71.4%
BTTS rate
53.3%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
58
History Matches
61
1.52
Goals Mean
1.59
1.22
Goals Std
1.21
75.9%
Scored 1+ rate
80.3%
46.6%
Scored 2+ rate
45.9%
20.7%
Scored 3+ rate
24.6%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
1.20
79.3%
Conceding rate
68.9%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.47
82.1%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.25
Goals against per game
0.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
58
History Matches
61
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.19
Conceded Std
1.13
39.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.1%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
61
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.65
0.77
Stability score
1.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
59
15
Lead Matches
21
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.2%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.81
9
Trailing Matches
11
22.2%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
43
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
10
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.25
PPG
3.00
25.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.25
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.75
6
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.75
0.29
Portability PPG Range
2.00
82.33
Portability Score
39.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-35.83
PPG-0.16
GF-0.07
GA0.27
PPG-1.75
PPG-0.11
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate0.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.27
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score-0.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate2.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.65
Portability PPG Range-1.71
Portability Score42.43
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Current Team ELO-35.83
Current Opponent ELO35.83
Current ELO Difference-71.66
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Racing Club Warwick

W
Rushall Olympic0–1Racing Club Warwick31 Oct · away
Pick: Rushall Olympic 52% · missed
L
Racing Club Warwick1–2Redditch United27 Oct · home
Pick: Racing Club Warwick 41% · missed
W
Racing Club Warwick5–1Halesowen Town20 Oct · home
Pick: Halesowen Town 44% · missed
W
Bishop's Stortford2–4Racing Club Warwick17 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Club Warwick 42% · hit
D
Racing Club Warwick0–0Stratford Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Racing Club Warwick 52% · missed

Bury Town

L
Bury Town2–3Kettering Town3 Nov · home
Pick: Bury Town 50% · missed
D
Bury Town2–2Banbury United31 Oct · home
Pick: Bury Town 61% · missed
L
Hitchin Town5–1Bury Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Bury Town 48% · missed
D
Real Bedford2–2Bury Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Real Bedford 53% · missed
W
Bury Town2–0Stourbridge17 Oct · home
Pick: Bury Town 48% · hit

About this match

Racing Club Warwick and Bury Town meet in Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Racing Club Warwick win 28.3%, draw 23.7%, Bury Town win 48.0%. The pick is Bury Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.8%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.