ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain Group 5 - 10 2026

Real Ávila vs Salamanca UDS

Real Ávila Home · Elo 1,530
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Salamanca UDS Away · Elo 1,494
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Ávila win
Real Ávila winPick
57.0%
Draw
22.2%
Salamanca UDS win
20.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.2%
No48.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%

How much we know

Real Ávila history58 matches
Salamanca UDS history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Real Ávila are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Ávila are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,494. On rating alone Real Ávila would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.29 goals a game over 58 matches for Real Ávila, against 1.20 over 50 for Salamanca UDS.

  • Defences are close

    Real Ávila concede 1.28 a game, Salamanca UDS 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Real Ávila matches, against 52% for Salamanca UDS. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Ávila
Salamanca UDS
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.9
ELO
1493.9
58
ELO · Matches
50
1529.9
Current Team ELO
1493.9
1493.9
Current Opponent ELO
1529.9
36.01
Current ELO Difference
-36.01
0.55
Expected score
0.45
58
History Matches
50
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.21
Overperformance
49.30
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.70
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.48
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.15
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
50
1.43
PPG
1.34
39.7%
Win rate
38.0%
24.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
36.2%
Loss rate
42.0%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
48.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
18.0%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
26
1.67
PPG
1.15
46.7%
Win rate
34.6%
26.7%
Draw rate
11.5%
26.7%
Loss rate
53.8%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
30
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.29
Goals for per game
1.20
70.7%
Scoring rate
72.0%
53.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.43
Goals for per game
0.96
73.3%
Scoring rate
65.4%
56.7%
BTTS rate
42.3%
58
History Matches
50
1.29
Goals Mean
1.20
1.10
Goals Std
1.08
70.7%
Scored 1+ rate
72.0%
41.4%
Scored 2+ rate
32.0%
13.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.0%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.28
Goals against per game
1.24
72.4%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.42
70.0%
Conceding rate
73.1%
58
History Matches
50
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.28
Conceded Std
1.21
32.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.0%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
50
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.75
1.90
Stability score
4.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
50
18
Lead Matches
12
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.81
9
Trailing Matches
17
11.1%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
88.02
Rest days
85.27
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
34
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
20
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.47
Portability PPG Range
0.34
72.18
Portability Score
74.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO36.01
PPG0.09
GF0.09
GA0.04
PPG0.51
PPG0.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate9.4%
Scored 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.48
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate0.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches8
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-2.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.21
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score-2.60
Rest days2.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.79
Current Team ELO36.01
Current Opponent ELO-36.01
Current ELO Difference72.02
Expected score0.10
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Ávila

L
Real Ávila0–1Real Madrid III1 Nov · home
Pick: Real Ávila 48% · missed
L
Atlético Paso3–0Real Ávila24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Ávila 39% · missed
L
Real Valladolid II2–1Real Ávila18 Oct · away
Pick: Real Ávila 44% · missed
L
SS Reyes3–0Real Ávila4 Oct · away
Pick: SS Reyes 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Salamanca UDS

W
Salamanca UDS1–0Gimnástica Segoviana1 Nov · home
Pick: Salamanca UDS 37% · hit
L
CF Talavera2–1Salamanca UDS25 Oct · away
Pick: CF Talavera 54% · hit
D
Salamanca UDS1–1Navalcarnero18 Oct · home
Pick: Salamanca UDS 41% · missed
L
Sestao River3–1Salamanca UDS14 Oct · away
Pick: Sestao River 52% · hit
L
Atlético Tordesillas2–0Salamanca UDS4 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Tordesillas 66% · hit

About this match

Real Ávila and Salamanca UDS meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Real Ávila win 57.0%, draw 22.2%, Salamanca UDS win 20.7%. The pick is Real Ávila win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.5%. Both teams to score: 51.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.