Real Jaén vs Zaragoza
Match result probability Model pick: Real Jaén win
Real Jaén winPick
38.4%
Draw
30.3%
Zaragoza win
31.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.4%
No49.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%
How much we know
Real Jaén history62 matches
Zaragoza history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Real Jaén
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 19:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 20:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.4%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Real Jaén are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Real Jaén are rated 110 Elo points higher
Elo 1,582 against 1,472. On rating alone Real Jaén would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Real Jaén score more
1.34 goals a game over 62 matches for Real Jaén, against 1.08 over 73 for Zaragoza.
-
Real Jaén concede fewer
Real Jaén concede 0.94 a game, Zaragoza 1.42.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
44% of Real Jaén matches, against 44% for Zaragoza. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zaragoza@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1582.0
ELO
1472.2
62
ELO · Matches
73
1582.0
Current Team ELO
1472.2
1472.2
Current Opponent ELO
1582.0
109.8
Current ELO Difference
-109.8
0.65
Expected score
0.35
62
History Matches
73
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.02
55.27
Overperformance
48.54
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.30
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.81
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals 90
62
Matches
73
1.76
PPG
1.14
50.0%
Win rate
28.8%
25.8%
Draw rate
27.4%
24.2%
Loss rate
43.8%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.6%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
12.9%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals 100
33
Matches
37
2.03
PPG
1.11
63.6%
Win rate
29.7%
12.1%
Draw rate
21.6%
24.2%
Loss rate
48.6%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
60.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.6%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
33
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.34
Goals for per game
1.08
77.4%
Scoring rate
71.2%
53.2%
BTTS rate
58.9%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.11
87.9%
Scoring rate
73.0%
57.6%
BTTS rate
64.9%
62
History Matches
73
1.34
Goals Mean
1.08
1.06
Goals Std
0.89
77.4%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
40.3%
Scored 2+ rate
30.1%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
6.8%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.94
Goals against per game
1.42
67.7%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.54
66.7%
Conceding rate
89.2%
62
History Matches
73
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.42
0.84
Conceded Std
1.17
19.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.4%
6.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
62
History Matches
73
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.38
Goal Difference Std
1.39
5.38
Stability score
2.18
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
62
Eligible Matches
73
15
Lead Matches
11
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.94
9
Trailing Matches
21
33.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals 50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
100.1
Rest days
84.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
33
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
27
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.64
0.63
Portability PPG Range
1.48
68.82
Portability Score
43.93
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
62
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO109.8
PPG0.62
GF0.26
GA-0.49
PPG0.92
PPG-1.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate13.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate22.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate6.2%
Scored 2+ rate10.2%
Scored 3+ rate4.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.49
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate13.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score3.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-0.85
Portability Score24.89
Rest days16.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.78
Current Team ELO109.8
Current Opponent ELO-109.8
Current ELO Difference219.7
Expected score0.31
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Real Jaén
L
Alcorcon4–3Real Jaén7 Nov · away
Pick: Real Jaén 35% · missed W
Real Jaén3–2Algeciras2 Nov · home
Pick: Real Jaén 51% · hit D
Atlético Madrid II1–1Real Jaén25 Oct · away
Pick: Real Jaén 37% · missed W
Real Jaén1–0Rayo Majadahonda18 Oct · home
Pick: Real Jaén 45% · hit W
Europa Fc0–3Real Jaén30 Aug · away
Pick: Real Jaén 35% · hit Zaragoza
W
Zaragoza2–0Huesca7 Nov · home
Pick: Huesca 37% · missed D
Zaragoza2–2Villarreal II31 Oct · home
Pick: Zaragoza 48% · missed W
Tudelano0–4Zaragoza27 Oct · away
Pick: Zaragoza 46% · hit W
Europa Fc0–1Zaragoza23 Oct · away
Pick: Zaragoza 37% · hit D
Real Murcia0–0Zaragoza18 Oct · away
Pick: Real Murcia 37% · missed About this match
Real Jaén and Zaragoza meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Nuevo Estadio de La Victoria. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Real Jaén win 38.4%, draw 30.3%, Zaragoza win 31.4%. The pick is Real Jaén win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 50.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.