Hércules vs Villarreal II
Match result probability Model pick: Villarreal II win
Hércules win
34.0%
Draw
27.2%
Villarreal II winPick
38.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.9%
No50.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.543.4%
Under 2.556.6%
How much we know
Hércules history63 matches
Villarreal II history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Villarreal II
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 17:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Villarreal II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Villarreal II are rated 75 Elo points higher
Elo 1,569 against 1,495. On rating alone Villarreal II would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Villarreal II score more
1.06 goals a game over 63 matches for Hércules, against 1.41 over 64 for Villarreal II.
-
Villarreal II concede fewer
Hércules concede 1.22 a game, Villarreal II 1.02.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
40% of Hércules matches, against 42% for Villarreal II. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Villarreal II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1494.6
ELO
1569.5
63
ELO · Matches
64
1494.6
Current Team ELO
1569.5
1569.5
Current Opponent ELO
1494.6
-74.86
Current ELO Difference
74.86
0.39
Expected score
0.61
63
History Matches
64
0.00
Residual Mean
0.05
49.95
Overperformance
54.09
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.60
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals 90
63
Matches
64
1.17
PPG
1.55
30.2%
Win rate
40.6%
27.0%
Draw rate
32.8%
42.9%
Loss rate
26.6%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.3%
39.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.2%
17.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.4%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
32
1.66
PPG
1.28
46.9%
Win rate
31.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
34.4%
28.1%
Loss rate
34.4%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
65.6%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
32
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.06
Goals for per game
1.41
66.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
47.6%
BTTS rate
43.8%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.28
71.9%
Scoring rate
68.8%
43.8%
BTTS rate
46.9%
63
History Matches
64
1.06
Goals Mean
1.41
0.92
Goals Std
1.17
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
39.1%
6.3%
Scored 3+ rate
21.9%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.22
Goals against per game
1.02
71.4%
Conceding rate
59.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.22
56.3%
Conceding rate
68.8%
63
History Matches
64
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.09
Conceded Std
1.10
36.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.1%
7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.9%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
63
History Matches
64
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.41
Goal Difference Std
1.65
1.87
Stability score
1.36
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
63
Eligible Matches
64
9
Lead Matches
25
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
76.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.81
16
Trailing Matches
12
25.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
92.01
Rest days
91.03
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
29
0.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.34
22
Long Rest History Matches
32
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.66
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.20
1.42
Portability PPG Range
0.47
45.86
Portability Score
70.98
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
63
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-74.86
PPG-0.37
GF-0.34
GA0.21
PPG0.38
PPG0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate8.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.55
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score0.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate1.8%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.39
Portability PPG Range0.95
Portability Score-25.12
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO-74.86
Current Opponent ELO74.86
Current ELO Difference-149.7
Expected score-0.21
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Hércules
W
Hércules2–0Rayo Majadahonda1 Nov · home
Pick: Hércules 39% · hit L
Gimnastic4–2Hércules25 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnastic 47% · hit L
Algeciras2–0Hércules17 Oct · away
Pick: Algeciras 34% · hit W
Hércules1–0Sant Andreu12 Oct · home
Pick: Hércules 38% · hit L
Hércules1–2Real Murcia29 Aug · home
Pick: Real Murcia 42% · hit Villarreal II
D
Zaragoza2–2Villarreal II31 Oct · away
Pick: Zaragoza 48% · missed W
Villarreal II4–1FC Cartagena25 Oct · home
Pick: Villarreal II 49% · hit W
Villarreal II2–0Teruel17 Oct · home
Pick: Villarreal II 41% · hit L
Villarreal II0–1Ibiza4 Oct · home
Pick: Villarreal II 39% · missed W
Rayo Majadahonda1–2Villarreal II29 Aug · away
Pick: Villarreal II 38% · hit About this match
Hércules and Villarreal II meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Hércules win 34.0%, draw 27.2%, Villarreal II win 38.8%. The pick is Villarreal II win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.4%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.